YINGJIA DISTILLERY(603198) 东方证券·2024-09-19 06:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 55.35 CNY based on a 15x P/E ratio for 2024 [2][3][6]. Core Views - The overall consumption of liquor during the Mid-Autumn Festival is expected to be flat, but the company is likely to continue its strong performance from the first half of the year. The company achieved a revenue of 3.79 billion CNY in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, and a net profit of 1.379 billion CNY, up 29.6% [1]. - The 100-300 CNY price range is highlighted as having significant potential, benefiting from a downward shift in consumer spending in Anhui province. The company's main products are well-positioned within this price range, particularly the Dongcang series [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing channel profitability and market penetration, especially in rural areas where disposable income growth is outpacing urban areas. This strategy is expected to provide resilience in revenue [1]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 3.69 CNY, 4.65 CNY, and 5.46 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The revenue is expected to grow from 8.216 billion CNY in 2024 to 11.614 billion CNY in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 22.3% [5][6][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 71.4% in 2023 to 75.8% in 2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][10].