PAB(000001) 浙商证券·2024-10-19 08:23Investment Rating - Ping An Bank is rated as "Buy" with a target price of CNY 14.00 per share, representing a 16% upside from the current price [3][5] Core Views - Ping An Bank's revenue decline has narrowed, with significant improvement in liability costs, but asset quality remains under pressure [3] - The bank's net profit for 24Q1-3 grew by 0.2% YoY, while revenue declined by 12.6% YoY, showing a slight improvement compared to 24H1 [3] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 1.06% at the end of 24Q3, with a provision coverage ratio of 251%, down by 13 percentage points from 24H1 [3] Financial Performance - Net interest margin (NIM) for 24Q3 decreased by 5bps QoQ to 1.87%, with liability costs improving by 10bps QoQ to 2.10% [3] - Asset yield declined by 15bps QoQ to 3.91%, driven by a 23bps drop in personal loan rates and industry-wide rate reductions [3] - Other non-interest income grew by 52.6% YoY in 24Q1-3, but the growth rate slowed by 4 percentage points QoQ [3] Asset Quality - The NPL ratio remained stable at 1.06% at the end of 24Q3, while the overdue and special-mention loan ratios increased by 15bps and 12bps, respectively [3] - The real NPL generation rate (TTM) rose by 14bps QoQ to 2.65%, with retail loans and corporate real estate loans being the main pressure points [3] - The write-off rate for 24Q1-3 was 176%, up by 6 percentage points YoY, indicating increased efforts in NPL disposal [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Ping An Bank's net profit is expected to grow by -0.02%, 0.26%, and 3.86% YoY for 2024-2026, with BPS of CNY 21.77, 23.87, and 26.01, respectively [3] - The current price implies a PB of 0.55x, 0.50x, and 0.46x for 2024-2026, with a target PB of 0.64x for 2024 [3] Key Financial Ratios - ROAE is projected to be 10.77%, 10.06%, and 9.57% for 2024-2026, while ROAA is expected to be 0.81%, 0.77%, and 0.75% [16] - The cost-to-income ratio is forecasted to remain stable at 27.90% for 2024-2026 [16] - The capital adequacy ratio is expected to be 12.63%, 12.38%, and 12.44% for 2024-2026, with a core tier 1 capital ratio of 9.13%, 9.50%, and 9.82% [16]