ZZPZH(600436) 国泰君安·2024-10-21 08:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Accumulate" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is actively enhancing channel construction, leading to rapid revenue growth from core products, while effectively controlling costs, indicating a potential for sustained performance growth [4]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 8.45 billion yuan (+11.2%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.687 billion yuan (+11.7%), with Q3 alone contributing 2.8 billion yuan in revenue (+9.6%) and 965 million yuan in net profit (+11.7%), aligning with expectations [4]. - The forecasted EPS for 2024-2026 is set at 5.21, 5.92, and 6.65 yuan respectively, with a target price adjustment to 248.64 yuan based on a 2025 PE of 42X, reflecting the scarcity of core products [4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a revenue of 8.45 billion yuan in Q1-3 2024, marking an 11.2% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.687 billion yuan, also up by 11.7% [4]. - The revenue from liver disease medications reached 4.283 billion yuan (+20.2%), with Q3 alone contributing 1.643 billion yuan (+25.3%) [4]. - The gross margin for Q1-3 2024 was 70.8%, a decrease of 7.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin slightly decreased by 0.26 percentage points to 32.16% [4]. Cost Control and Efficiency - Despite a rise in raw material costs leading to a gross margin decline, the company has maintained effective cost control, with sales and management expense ratios at 3.93% and 2.69% respectively, both showing year-on-year reductions [4]. - The company continues to focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, which are expected to support stable profit growth as brand influence and revenue scale increase [4]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is expanding its distribution channels, with over 10,000 new stores added in Q3 and ongoing development of traditional Chinese medicine outlets [4]. - The online sales channels are being strengthened through partnerships with major e-commerce platforms, contributing to overall sales growth [4]. - The anticipated catalysts for growth include exceeding sales expectations for core products and continued channel expansion [4].