中国平安：NBV单三季度同比翻番，营运利润重回增长

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 net profit surged by +151.3% YoY, driven by strong performance in non-banking interest income (+258% YoY to 90.53 billion CNY) and investment income [1] - Operating profit (OPAT) turned positive, with life and health insurance OPAT growing by +3% YoY and property insurance OPAT increasing by +39.7% YoY [1] - New business value (NBV) grew by +34.1% YoY (non-retrospective basis: +4.7%), exceeding expectations due to improvements in both new premiums and value rate [1] - The company's agent force increased by +4.3% to 362,000, reversing the previous trend of shrinkage, with per-agent NBV rising by +54.7% YoY [1] - Property insurance premiums grew by +5.9% YoY, with combined ratio (COR) improving by -1.5pct to 97.8%, driven by better underwriting quality [1] - Investment performance was strong, with OCI (other comprehensive income) increasing by +10.9% YoY, supported by equity market recovery and bond price appreciation [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 net profit reached 119.2 billion CNY, up +36.1% YoY, driven by investment income and fair value changes [1] - Life and health insurance premiums grew by +5.5% YoY, while property insurance premiums increased by +5.9% YoY [1] - The company's annualized net investment yield (NII) was 3.8%, with OCI (excluding bond floating profits) rising by +2.76pct YoY to 5% [1] - EPS forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 7.24, 8.55, and 10.47 CNY, respectively [1] Strategic Highlights - The company is focusing on optimizing its agent force, with the "You+" segment accounting for +4pct more of the total agent force [1] - Bancassurance channel NBV grew by +68.5% YoY, with external channel productivity increasing by +77% YoY [1] - The company is leveraging its integrated financial services to drive long-term growth and maintain a competitive edge in the insurance sector [1] Valuation - The company's PEV (price-to-embedded value) ratio is 0.69x, indicating potential for further valuation recovery [1] - The stock is trading at a discount compared to its historical valuation levels, with room for re-rating as core valuation pressures, such as real estate risks, ease [1]