HLGF(600346) 华创证券·2024-10-26 06:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Hengli Petrochemical (600346) with a target price of 17.4 yuan for 2025 [1] Core Views - Q3 2024 revenue reached 65.261 billion yuan, up 2.44% YoY and 20.44% QoQ, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.087 billion yuan, down 59.01% YoY and 42.14% QoQ [1] - Inventory losses and PTA product performance dragged down Q3 results, with gross margin declining to 7.78%, down 5.8 ppts YoY and 4.8 ppts QoQ [1] - The company is advancing overseas strategic cooperation with Saudi Aramco, which plans to acquire a 10% stake in Hengli Petrochemical [1] - New material production capacity is expected to be fully operational in H2 2024, with 1.6 million tons/year high-performance resin and new material projects leading the way [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 sales volume: 5.85 million tons for refining products (+10% YoY, +63% QoQ), 3.35 million tons for PTA (-14% YoY, -9% QoQ), and 1.26 million tons for new materials (+17% YoY, -12% QoQ) [1] - Q3 2024 product prices: 5,700 yuan/ton for refining products (-1% YoY, +4% QoQ), 4,908 yuan/ton for PTA (-4% YoY, -7% QoQ), and 8,211 yuan/ton for new materials (-3% YoY, +4% QoQ) [1] - 2024-2026 revenue forecasts: 251.544 billion yuan (+7.1% YoY), 264.025 billion yuan (+5.0% YoY), and 280.165 billion yuan (+6.1% YoY) [2] - 2024-2026 net profit forecasts: 7.327 billion yuan (+6.1% YoY), 10.186 billion yuan (+39.0% YoY), and 12.460 billion yuan (+22.3% YoY) [2] Strategic Developments - The company is actively pursuing internationalization through strategic cooperation with Saudi Aramco, focusing on crude oil supply, raw material supply, product procurement, and technology licensing [1] - New material projects, including the 1.6 million tons/year high-performance resin project and the Kanghui New Materials Nantong base, are expected to drive future growth [1] Valuation - Current PE ratios: 14x for 2024, 10x for 2025, and 8x for 2026 [1] - Target price of 17.4 yuan based on 12x 2025 PE, representing a 21.5% upside from the current price of 14.32 yuan [1][3]