塔牌集团：投资性收益抬升盈利水平，水泥价格盈利修复可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's investment income has elevated profit levels, and a recovery in cement prices is anticipated [1] - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year revenue drop of 28.8% and a net profit decrease of 38.0% [1] - The cement business showed a slight recovery in sales volume in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 16.6% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.2% [1] - The overall gross margin for Q3 2024 was 21.1%, indicating continued pressure on profitability [1] - The company plans to maintain a stable cash dividend, highlighting its long-term investment value [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2022A, the company reported revenue of 6,035 million with a year-on-year decline of 22%, while in 2023A, revenue was 5,535 million, down 8% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022A was 266 million, which increased to 742 million in 2023A, reflecting a growth rate of 179% [1] - The forecast for net profit for 2024E is 487 million, a decrease of 34% year-on-year [1] Market Conditions - The cement sales price decreased by 18.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, but the decline rate has narrowed compared to the first half of the year [1] - The average price of P.O 42.5 cement increased by 23 yuan per ton as of October 18, 2024, indicating a potential stabilization in prices [1] - Government policies and supply-side adjustments are expected to support demand recovery in the cement industry [1] Investment Strategy - The company aims to distribute cash dividends not less than 70% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026, with a projected total dividend of approximately 540 million [1] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 19.0 for 2024E, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [1]