巴比食品：稳步经营，盈利提振

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index within the next six months [2][15]. Core Views - The company has shown steady operations with a slight decline in revenue but a significant increase in net profit, indicating improved profitability [3]. - The group meal business continues to grow, while the franchise business faces slight pressure, reflecting mixed performance across different sales channels [3]. - The company is actively exploring new market segments to create a second growth curve, such as launching the "Babi Burger" brand to enter the hamburger market [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 447 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.46%, while net profit increased by 14% to 83 million yuan [3]. - Cumulative revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 1.21 billion yuan, up 2.04% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 25.68% to 194 million yuan [3]. - The overall gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 26.40%, a slight increase from the previous year, while the net profit margin improved to 16.06% [3]. Store Development and Sales Channels - As of Q3 2024, the company had a total of 5,286 franchise stores, with a net increase of 243 stores during the year [3]. - The revenue from franchise stores, direct-operated stores, and group meals for Q1-Q3 2024 was 913 million, 15 million, and 264 million yuan, respectively, showing varied growth rates across these channels [3]. Profitability Metrics - The report indicates that the company’s net profit margin has increased, reflecting effective cost management and operational efficiency [3]. - The company’s sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, and research expense ratio for Q1-Q3 2024 were 4.42%, 7.78%, and 0.76%, respectively, showing a slight improvement in cost control [3]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Based on the Q3 2024 performance, the revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downwards, while net profit forecasts remain unchanged, with expected net profits of 241 million, 285 million, and 324 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3].