证券研究报告 | 2025年04月28日 巴比食品（605338.SH） 中性 2025 年第一季度收入同比增长 4%，公司经营状况企稳 巴比食品 2025 年第一季度收入同比增长 4%。巴比食品公布 2025 年第一季度 业绩，2025Q1 实现营业总收入 3.70 亿元，同比增长 4.45%；实现归母净利 润 0.37 亿元，同比减少 6.13%；实现扣非归母净利润 0.39 亿元，同比增长 3.33%。 单店保持改善趋势，并购贡献增量。2025Q1 面米类/馅料类/外购食品类/包 装及辅料/服务费收入分别同比+2.6%/+11.4%/+3.7%/+3.4%/-14.7%。2025Q1 特许加盟收入同比+2.7%，剔除青露并表原有门店收入虽然仍存压力，但是 单店营收缺口环比减少趋势延续；团餐业务收入同比+11.7%，主因新零售、 餐饮连锁等渠道团餐增速较快。2025Q1 末公司门店数量净增 501 家至 5644 家，其中并购的"蒸全味"、"青露"并表贡献 504 家。 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 食品饮料·食品加工 | 联系人：王新雨 | | --- | | 证券分析师：张向伟 | 021-60875 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 370 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a 4% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6% to 37 million yuan [1] - The gross margin is expected to improve gradually as operational efficiency offsets depreciation impacts, with a slight decrease in gross margin to 25.47% in Q1 2025 [2] - The company continues to narrow the single-store gap and is advancing brand acquisitions and supply chain integration, with food revenue reaching 334 million yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 total revenue was 370 million yuan, with a 4% increase year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 37 million yuan, down 6% [1] - Q1 2025 gross margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 25.47%, primarily due to one-time investments from the new Wuhan factory [2] - Sales expense ratio and management expense ratio decreased by 1 percentage point and 0.1 percentage points to 4.06% and 7.55%, respectively [2] Growth Drivers - Food revenue in Q1 2025 was 334 million yuan, with rice and flour, filling, and purchased food categories growing by 3%, 11%, and 4% respectively, driven by ongoing brand acquisitions and supply chain integration [3] - Franchise sales revenue reached 265 million yuan, a 3% increase, with 5,644 franchise stores as of the end of Q1 2025, reflecting a net increase of 501 stores [3] - Group meal revenue grew by 12% to 93 million yuan, supported by rising customer demand and customized products [3] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to maintain its store opening pace and benefit from brand acquisitions, with EPS projected at 1.08, 1.17, and 1.24 yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 17, 16, and 15 times [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 370 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a 4% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6% to 37 million yuan [1] - The gross margin is expected to improve gradually as operational efficiencies offset depreciation impacts, with a slight decrease in gross margin to 25.47% in Q1 2025 [2] - The company continues to narrow the single-store gap and is advancing brand acquisitions and supply chain integration, with food revenue reaching 334 million yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 total revenue was 370 million yuan, with a net profit of 37 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 39 million yuan, reflecting a 3% increase [1] - The gross margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 25.47% due to one-time investments from the new Wuhan factory, but operational efficiencies are expected to improve margins in subsequent quarters [2] Business Development - Food revenue was 334 million yuan, with specific segments like rice and flour, filling, and purchased food growing by 3%, 11%, and 4% respectively, driven by ongoing brand acquisitions and supply chain integration [3] - The franchise sales revenue reached 265 million yuan, a 3% increase, with a total of 5,644 franchise stores by the end of Q1 2025, reflecting a net increase of 501 stores [3] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to maintain its store opening pace and benefit from brand acquisitions, with EPS projected at 1.08, 1.17, and 1.24 yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 17, 16, and 15 times [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 370 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.1% to 40 million yuan [1]. - The company opened 711 new stores in Q1 2025, with a net increase of 501 stores, bringing the total to 5,644 stores. This includes 504 stores from acquisitions and 44 from other brands [2]. - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 25.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased costs from the new Wuhan factory [3]. - The company aims to open 1,000 new stores in 2025, with expectations for single-store revenue to improve and a reduction in store closures [4]. Financial Forecasts - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.848 billion yuan, 2.036 billion yuan, and 2.192 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 10.6%, 10.2%, and 7.7% [5]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is 264 million yuan, 292 million yuan, and 311 million yuan, with growth rates of -4.7%, 10.6%, and 6.6% [5]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 17x, 15x, and 14x, respectively [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 370 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.1% to 40 million yuan [1] - The company opened 711 new stores in Q1 2025, with a net increase of 501 stores, bringing the total to 5,644 stores. This includes 504 stores from acquisitions and 44 from new brands [2] - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 25.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased costs from the new Wuhan factory [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 10.6%, 10.2%, and 7.7% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected to be 260 million, 290 million, and 310 million yuan [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 370 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 40 million yuan, down 6.1% year-on-year [1] - The company’s gross margin was 25.5%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to additional costs from the new factory [3] Store Expansion - The company opened 711 new stores in Q1 2025, achieving a net increase of 501 stores, with a total of 5,644 stores. The closure rate improved compared to the previous quarter [2] - The company aims to open 1,000 new stores throughout 2025, with expectations for single-store revenue to recover [4] Revenue Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 1.85 billion, 2.04 billion, and 2.19 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 10.6%, 10.2%, and 7.7% [5][4] - The projected net profits for the same years are 260 million, 290 million, and 310 million yuan, with a slight decline in 2025 followed by growth in subsequent years [5][4]

Core Insights - The company has observed a continuous decline in single-store revenue for both its own and non-Babi brands over the past few years, but there has been a slow recovery since the second half of last year, albeit at a weaker pace compared to Babi brands [1] - The company is currently refining its product and store models for new business formats such as bagel shops and noodle restaurants, with plans to consider market franchising once the store model matures [1] - In the catering business, the company is expanding through both traditional and new business channels, with new business channels experiencing over 30% growth, now accounting for approximately 40% of total revenue [1] Business Performance - The retail channel has seen over 60% year-on-year growth, with significant contributions from fresh e-commerce platforms, Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin, which together make up nearly 50% of the new business channel [1] - The company aims to deepen collaborations with high-potential clients, such as Yonghui Supermarket, to expand sales and create more successful case studies [1] Profitability Outlook - The company expects the gross margin for its catering business to remain at the same level as in 2024, despite potential adverse impacts from new client types, which will be mitigated through further efficiency improvements [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 370 million yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.45%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.13% to 37 million yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue growth of 4.5% aligns with expectations, driven by contributions from the Qinglu brand and continued growth in group meal services [2] - The company’s gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was recorded at 25.5%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, with stable raw material costs but impacted by depreciation from the new Hubei factory [3] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 10.1%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the impact of financial costs due to previous buybacks and acquisitions [3] Group 2: Business Growth and Strategy - The company is expected to see gradual improvement in its fundamentals throughout the year, with a narrowing trend in single-store performance gaps and continued double-digit growth in group meal services [4] - The company’s growth strategy remains clear, focusing on both organic and acquisition-driven growth, with the integration of Qinglu expected to further enhance revenue [4] - The company maintains a strong outlook for the year, anticipating a gradual recovery in performance, particularly if the pace of store closures slows down [5] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The company is maintaining a "strong buy" rating, with expectations for continued improvement in same-store performance and contributions from acquisitions and group meal services [5] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are now set at 1.06, 1.17, and 1.27 yuan, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook for valuation recovery [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a stabilization in single-store revenue and is accelerating its store expansion pace. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 370 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 37 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% [8] - The company plans to open 1,000 new stores in 2025 and is taking a more proactive approach towards mergers and acquisitions. The acquisition of the "Zheng Quan Wei" brand has been successfully implemented in the first half of 2024, and the "Qing Lu" brand project is currently completing supply chain transitions and equity acquisitions [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 1,630 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.89%. For 2024, it is expected to reach 1,671 million yuan, a growth of 2.53%, and further increase to 1,850 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 10.70% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 213.72 million yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year decline of 4.04%. It is expected to rise to 276.59 million yuan in 2024, a growth of 29.42%, and reach 283.62 million yuan in 2025, a growth of 2.54% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.89 yuan for 2023, increasing to 1.15 yuan in 2024 and 1.18 yuan in 2025 [1] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 is reported at 25.5%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to depreciation impacts from the Wuhan factory. The net profit margin for Q1 2025 is 10.0%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company has seen a reduction in subsidy expenses and an improvement in scale effects, leading to optimized profit margins [8] Store Expansion and Sales Performance - The company has achieved a net increase of 501 franchise stores, bringing the total to 5,644 stores. The average single-store revenue has decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, but the same-store revenue decline is narrowing [8] - The sales performance across different product categories shows a year-on-year increase in revenue from various segments, with the meal and filling categories growing by 11.4% [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown stability in single-store revenue and is accelerating its store expansion pace. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 370 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 37 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% [8] - The company plans to open 1,000 new stores in 2025 and is adopting a more proactive attitude towards mergers and acquisitions [8] - The company’s gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 25.5%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to depreciation impacts from the Wuhan factory [8] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to reach 1,850 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.7% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 283.62 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.54% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.18 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.42 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [9][25]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 370 million yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.45%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.13% to 37 million yuan [2][9]. - The report highlights a continued improvement in same-store sales and stable operational progress, with expectations for gradual improvement in the company's fundamentals throughout the year [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The total revenue is projected to grow from 1,671 million yuan in 2024 to 1,844 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 10.3% [4][10]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline from 277 million yuan in 2024 to 255 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.9% [4][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to be 1.06 yuan in 2025, adjusted from previous estimates due to share buyback impacts [9][10]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 18 for 2025, decreasing to 15 by 2027, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to remain around 2 [4][10]. Operational Insights - The company experienced a net increase of 501 stores, bringing the total to 5,644, despite closing three existing stores [9][10]. - The report notes a double-digit growth in the group meal business, with a 11.7% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025 [9][10]. - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was recorded at 25.5%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to depreciation from new factory operations [9][10].