巴比食品（605338）：单店缺口收窄，拓店有序推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 370 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.1% to 40 million yuan [1] - The company opened 711 new stores in Q1 2025, with a net increase of 501 stores, bringing the total to 5,644 stores. This includes 504 stores from acquisitions and 44 from new brands [2] - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 25.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased costs from the new Wuhan factory [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 10.6%, 10.2%, and 7.7% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected to be 260 million, 290 million, and 310 million yuan [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 370 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 40 million yuan, down 6.1% year-on-year [1] - The company’s gross margin was 25.5%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to additional costs from the new factory [3] Store Expansion - The company opened 711 new stores in Q1 2025, achieving a net increase of 501 stores, with a total of 5,644 stores. The closure rate improved compared to the previous quarter [2] - The company aims to open 1,000 new stores throughout 2025, with expectations for single-store revenue to recover [4] Revenue Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 1.85 billion, 2.04 billion, and 2.19 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 10.6%, 10.2%, and 7.7% [5][4] - The projected net profits for the same years are 260 million, 290 million, and 310 million yuan, with a slight decline in 2025 followed by growth in subsequent years [5][4]