HLGF(600346) 光大证券·2024-10-27 10:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was pressured by falling oil prices, but there is optimism regarding its medium to long-term growth potential [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 177.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5% [1] - In Q3 alone, the company reported operating revenue of 65.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.4%, with a net profit of 1.09 billion yuan, down 59% year-on-year and 42% quarter-on-quarter [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 Brent crude oil average price was 66 per ton year-on-year but increased by $4 per ton quarter-on-quarter [1] - The refining spread was 800 yuan per ton, up 126 yuan per ton year-on-year and 109 yuan per ton quarter-on-quarter [1] - The PX spread was 660 yuan per ton, down 801 yuan per ton year-on-year but up 228 yuan per ton quarter-on-quarter [1] Dividend Policy - The company has consistently maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with a cash dividend of 0.55 yuan per share (including tax) for the 2023 fiscal year, totaling 3.871 billion yuan [1] - The dividend payout ratio was 56.07%, and since its restructuring and listing in 2016, the company has distributed a total of 22.371 billion yuan in dividends, accounting for 41.08% of cumulative net profit attributable to shareholders [1] Growth Potential - New production capacities are gradually coming online, with several projects expected to be fully operational by 2025 [1] - The company is focusing on high-value-added new materials, with significant projects in Dalian and Suzhou progressing well [1] - The company is expected to maintain high growth potential despite the current challenges in the aromatic sector [1] Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the earnings forecast for 2024-2026, estimating net profits of 7.215 billion yuan (down 20%), 9.228 billion yuan (down 9%), and 10.538 billion yuan (down 9%) respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.03, 1.31, and 1.50 yuan [1][2]