天目湖：2024三季报点评：天气影响客流承压，积极推进南山小寨二期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 405 million yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 85 million yuan, down 29% year-on-year [2] - Q3 revenue was 141 million yuan, a decline of 26% year-on-year, with a net profit of 33 million yuan, down 43% year-on-year, primarily due to continuous rainy weather affecting normal operations [2] - The company is actively advancing the second phase of the Nanshan Xiaozhai project and has entered a new stage of government-enterprise cooperation by managing the Pingqiao Shiba Park [2] - The opening of the Hushu Lake High-speed Railway is expected to reduce travel time from Shanghai to Liyang, potentially boosting visitor numbers [2] - The company is recognized as a pioneer in the one-stop tourism model in China, with unique resource endowments and excellent project development capabilities [2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 1.3 billion yuan, 1.5 billion yuan, and 1.8 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23, 20, and 18 times [2] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is 134 million yuan, down from a previous estimate of 147 million yuan [2] - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 54.1%, a decrease of 5.7 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 23.3%, down 6.8 percentage points year-on-year [2][7]