HAID GROUP(002311) 国泰君安·2024-10-28 08:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and lowers the target price to 59.80 CNY from the previous 63.02 CNY [3][4]. Core Views - The third-quarter profit slightly exceeded expectations, with stable growth in the feed business and substantial profits from pig farming hedging. Looking ahead, the industry output is expected to improve year-on-year in 2025, and the company's overseas business is gradually increasing in volume and profit [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved operating revenue of 848.61 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.624 billion CNY, up 60.95% year-on-year [3]. Feed Business - The feed industry concentration is increasing, and the pig farming industry has seen significant consolidation in recent years. The company has shown strong flexibility in its pig feed business, successfully entering family farms and large group farms, resulting in better growth than the industry average [3]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in livestock inventory in 2025, with a narrowing decline in pig feed production. The special aquaculture feed market is also expected to improve due to low inventory levels and rising prices in 2025 [3]. Overseas Sales - The company is experiencing gradual growth in overseas feed sales, with expected sales volume reaching 2.3 million tons, primarily in aquaculture feed. The overseas market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of around 30% over the next 3-4 years, which will help smooth seasonal performance fluctuations [3].