supor(002032) 国泰君安·2024-10-28 17:10Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4][12]. Core Views - The company's external sales continue to grow, while internal sales remain stable. The performance is expected to stabilize with product structure improvements and new channels contributing to growth [2][3]. - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted downwards, with expected EPS of 2.82, 3.04, and 3.29 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4%, 8%, and 8% respectively [3][12]. - The target price has been raised to 64.3 yuan, based on a 23x PE for 2024, considering improved market sentiment and the impact of the old-for-new policy [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 16.512 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.45%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.433 billion yuan, up 5.19% year-on-year [14]. - The Q3 revenue from domestic sales was 5.548 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.03%, and a net profit of 492 million yuan, up 2.22% year-on-year [14]. 2. Domestic and External Sales Performance - Domestic sales are in a slow recovery phase, with weak demand in July and August for small kitchen appliances and cookware. However, a boost is expected in September due to the old-for-new policy [15]. - External sales are projected to grow by 8% to 10% year-on-year, with a 15% increase in related transactions expected with the parent company SEB [15]. 3. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 24.47%, down 0.93 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 8.67%, down 0.19 percentage points year-on-year [16]. - The company’s expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were 10.1%, 1.78%, 1.98%, and -0.29% respectively, with slight year-on-year changes [16]. 4. Financial Health - As of Q3 2024, the company had cash and cash equivalents plus trading financial assets totaling 2.636 billion yuan, a decrease of 272 million yuan year-on-year [17]. - The company reported a healthy cash flow from operating activities of 1.12 billion yuan for Q3 2024, with total cash inflow from sales of goods and services at 4.904 billion yuan, an increase of 674 million yuan year-on-year [18].