This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 27 April 2025 002032.SZ, 002032 CH Price (25 Apr 25):Rmb55.45 Zhejiang Supor - A ▼Price Target (Jun-26):Rmb61.00 Prior (Jun-26):Rmb63.00 Head of Asia Consumer Resear ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 68.77, representing a potential upside of 9% from the current price of RMB 55.17 [1][8]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2025 shows stable growth, with revenue reaching RMB 5.79 billion, up 7.59% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 497 million, up 5.82% year-on-year [1][8]. - External sales growth is expected to outpace internal sales, driven by high demand and national subsidies, contributing to a positive outlook for 2025 [1][8]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) decreased by 0.51 percentage points to 23.91% in Q1 2025, while overall profitability remains stable despite increased competition in the domestic market [1][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: RMB 21,304 million - 2024A: RMB 22,427 million - 2025E: RMB 23,821 million - 2026E: RMB 25,073 million - 2027E: RMB 26,392 million - The year-on-year growth rates are 5.6%, 5.3%, 6.2%, 5.3%, and 5.3% respectively [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be: - 2023A: RMB 2,180 million - 2024A: RMB 2,244 million - 2025E: RMB 2,397 million - 2026E: RMB 2,557 million - 2027E: RMB 2,708 million - The year-on-year growth rates are 5.4%, 3.0%, 6.8%, 6.7%, and 5.9% respectively [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2025E: RMB 2.99 - 2026E: RMB 3.19 - 2027E: RMB 3.38 [3][8]. Company Outlook - For 2025, the company anticipates selling RMB 7.37 billion worth of goods to SEB, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase, supported by trade-in programs and market share growth [1][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 22.43 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.24 billion yuan, up 2.97% year-on-year [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 28.10 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 2.24 billion yuan, with a cash dividend payout ratio of 99.74% [2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.59%, and a net profit of 497 million yuan, up 5.82% year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Domestic sales remained stable with a revenue of 14.93 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decline of 1.21% year-on-year, while external sales grew significantly to 7.50 billion yuan, an increase of 21.07% year-on-year [3] - In Q1 2025, the kitchen small appliances sector saw online sales growth in various categories, including rice cookers and health pots, with increases ranging from 4.9% to 26.6% [3] Profitability and Cost Control - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 24.65%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points year-on-year, with domestic gross margin at 27.69% and external gross margin at 18.62% [4] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 10.01%, down 0.22 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 net profit margin was 8.56%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points year-on-year [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 23.64 billion yuan, 24.72 billion yuan, and 25.66 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.38 billion yuan, 2.51 billion yuan, and 2.64 billion yuan [5] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 2.97 yuan, 3.13 yuan, and 3.29 yuan respectively, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19, 18, and 17 times [5]

Group 1: Company Performance and Sales Outlook - The company achieved growth in both domestic and international sales in Q1 2025, supported by the government's trade-in policy and local government cooperation [2] - The company aims to maintain better-than-industry performance in domestic sales and stable growth in international sales through continuous product innovation and channel transformation [2] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs and Competition - The high tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Chinese exports have a minimal impact on the company due to its low exposure in the North American market and flexible capacity allocation through its Vietnam base [3] - To maintain profit margins amid intense competition, the company focuses on resource investment in sales growth and product innovation, while implementing strict cost management [3] Group 3: New Product Categories and Innovations - The company evaluates new product categories based on market capacity and technological iteration potential, with plans to enter segments like desktop water purifiers and tea machines [4] - In 2024, the company launched innovative products such as the IH rice cooker and titanium non-stick frying pan in its traditional strong categories [4] Group 4: Dividend Policy and Online Sales Channels - The company has a high dividend payout ratio and plans future dividends based on capital expenditure and cash flow conditions [4] - Online sales channels, particularly traditional e-commerce platforms like Tmall, JD.com, and Pinduoduo, remain stable contributors to sales, while social e-commerce platforms are experiencing rapid growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - Supor (002032.SZ) reported mixed results in its Q1 earnings, with revenue and net profit growth but a significant decline in operating cash flow by 44%, raising concerns among investors [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Supor achieved total revenue of 5.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.59%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 496.85 million yuan, up 5.82%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 484.66 million yuan, growing by 4.98% [2][4]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 583.80 million yuan, a decrease of 44.03% compared to the previous year, attributed to a reduction in cash received from sales of goods and services [2][4]. - The cash received from sales in Q1 was 4.89 billion yuan, down approximately 7% from 5.26 billion yuan in Q1 2024 [2]. Management Actions - Three key executives, including the CFO and board secretary, plan to continue reducing their holdings in the company, which has raised investor concerns due to their history of significant sell-offs, particularly at high stock price points [1][5]. - In 2024, these executives also engaged in substantial stock sales, with specific figures indicating a pattern of ongoing divestment [5]. Industry Outlook - The domestic kitchenware and small appliance industry faces both challenges and opportunities in 2025, transitioning from a pure growth phase to one where both growth and market saturation coexist [3]. - Supor aims to upgrade its product structure and explore new categories and scenarios for growth, supported by government policies promoting appliance upgrades [3]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in its export business, collaborating with foreign trade clients to enhance product development and competitiveness [3]. Production and Supply Chain - Supor operates seven manufacturing bases in China and Vietnam, focusing on cost reduction through automation and supply chain optimization [7]. - Future growth in the export business will depend on the organic growth of key foreign clients, with the company leveraging its manufacturing scale and responsiveness to provide competitively priced products [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported steady growth in both domestic and international sales for Q1 2025, maintaining stable profitability and a "buy" rating. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.786 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.59% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 497 million yuan, up 5.82% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 484 million yuan, an increase of 4.98% [1] - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.443 billion, 2.599 billion, and 2.769 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.05, 3.24, and 3.46 yuan [1] Group 2: Sales Growth - Domestic sales are expected to benefit from national subsidies, while international sales are minimally impacted by tariffs [2] - The company's international sales growth is supported by stable demand from major clients, despite some customers stockpiling due to tariff policies [2] - For Q1 2025, the company's consumer business revenue growth rates were +2.8% in comparison to previous quarters, with EMEA and Americas regions showing varied performance [2] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 23.91%, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points [3] - The company's total expense ratio for Q1 2025 was 13.31%, with effective control over sales expenses, which decreased by 0.29 percentage points [3] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 8.59%, reflecting stable profitability despite a slight decrease of 0.07 percentage points [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.786 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.59%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 497 million yuan, up by 5.82%, and the non-recurring net profit was 484 million yuan, increasing by 4.98%. The company maintains stable profitability and growth in both domestic and international sales, leading to a maintained profit forecast for 2025-2027 [6][7] - The company is expected to benefit from policy-driven improvements in domestic demand in the short term, while long-term prospects remain positive due to steady revenue growth and stable profit margins, with a high dividend payout ratio [6] Financial Summary - The total market capitalization of the company is 44.435 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 44.382 billion yuan. The current stock price is 55.45 yuan, with a 52-week high of 64.30 yuan and a low of 45.70 yuan [1] - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 24.43 billion yuan, 25.99 billion yuan, and 27.69 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.05 yuan, 3.24 yuan, and 3.46 yuan. The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 18.2, 17.1, and 16.0 times for the respective years [6][9] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 23.91%, maintaining stability compared to the previous year. The net profit margin was 8.59%, indicating stable profitability [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.786 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.59%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 497 million yuan, up by 5.82%, and the non-recurring net profit was 484 million yuan, an increase of 4.98% [6] - The report maintains profit forecasts, expecting net profits attributable to the parent company to be 2.443 billion yuan, 2.599 billion yuan, and 2.769 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.05, 3.24, and 3.46 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 18.2, 17.1, and 16.0 times for the same years [6] - Short-term focus is on policy-driven improvement in domestic demand in 2025, while long-term outlook remains positive for steady revenue growth, stable profit margins, and high-quality operations potentially maintaining a high dividend payout ratio [6] Sales Performance - The company experienced steady growth in both domestic and international sales. In Q1 2025, domestic sales were expected to benefit from government subsidies, while international sales were minimally impacted by tariff policies [7] - The revenue growth for the SEB Group's consumer business in Q1 2025 was 2.8%, with expectations for continued robust growth in international sales due to low export exposure and support from the Vietnam base [7] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 23.91%, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points. The overall expense ratio remained stable, with a total expense ratio of 13.31% [8] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 8.59%, indicating stable profitability [8] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 23.895 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5%. The projected net profit for 2025 is 2.443 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.9% increase [9] - Key financial ratios include a projected gross margin of 25.0% and a net margin of 10.2% for 2025 [9]

Group 1 - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 5.786 billion yuan, an 8% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 497 million yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year [1] - The company benefited from the home appliance replacement policy, with core categories like rice cookers and microwaves included in the national subsidy program [1] - The external sales experienced rapid growth due to export demand influenced by U.S. tariff policies [1] Group 2 - In 2024, the cookware business generated revenue of 6.836 billion yuan, a 12.88% increase year-on-year, while the electrical appliances business achieved revenue of 15.3 billion yuan, a 2.25% increase year-on-year [2] - The company focused on product innovation in key categories, such as non-stick technology for iron pans and launched popular multifunctional products [2] - Domestic sales revenue was 14.757 billion yuan, a 1.20% decrease year-on-year, while external sales reached 7.411 billion yuan, a 21.28% increase year-on-year [2] Group 3 - The company is accelerating the integration of online and offline channels, maintaining growth in online sales despite intensified competition [3] - Collaborations with platforms like Meituan and JD Daojia are enhancing the offline store ecosystem [3] - The company expects a total amount of related transactions for 2025 to be 7.46 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year, benefiting from the recovery in overseas demand [3] Group 4 - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is set at 2.38 billion, 2.48 billion, and 2.61 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 6.0%, 4.2%, and 5.4% respectively [4] - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to its strong market position in traditional small appliances and successful online channel transformation [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's revenue performance exceeded expectations, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 5.786 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 497 million yuan, up 6% year-on-year [6] - The company is benefiting from the trend of replacing old home appliances, with core categories like rice cookers and microwave ovens included in the national subsidy program for replacements. The external sales have also seen rapid growth due to export demand [6] - The company is successfully integrating online and offline sales channels, optimizing product and store matrices, and enhancing marketing efficiency through live streaming on platforms like Douyin [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 22.427 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.3%. For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be 5.786 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.6% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is forecasted to be 2.380 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.0% [5] - The company maintains a gross profit margin of 25.8% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 36.3% [5]