Hunan Changyuan Lico (688779) 民生证券·2024-10-28 23:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, citing its strong technical foundation, diversified product portfolio, and improving customer structure as key factors for potential profit recovery [2][4] Core Views - The company's short-term performance is under pressure due to declining lithium salt prices and intensified market competition, leading to lower product prices and reduced profitability [2] - Despite short-term challenges, the company's long-term competitiveness remains intact, supported by its state-owned enterprise background, efficient management, and diversified production capacity [2] - The company is actively expanding into overseas markets, with stable shipments to Toyota PPES and progress in PHEV mid-nickel ternary material validation, which could enhance future growth potential [2] - New product development is progressing well, with high-nickel ternary materials and solid-state battery cathode materials showing promising results, which could strengthen the company's long-term competitive advantage [2] Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 54.90%, and a net loss of 172 million yuan, down 338.75% year-on-year [2] - The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 5.958 billion yuan, 8.797 billion yuan, and 11.969 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -44.5%, +47.6%, and +36.1%, respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -143 million yuan, 152 million yuan, and 313 million yuan for 2024-2026, with growth rates of -14.7%, +206.6%, and +105.4%, respectively [2] Production Capacity and Market Position - The company operates three production bases with an annual capacity of 120,000 tons of ternary cathode, 60,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, 30,000 tons of precursors, and 5,000 tons of waste battery recycling [2] - It has successfully entered the supply chains of major lithium battery manufacturers such as CATL, EVE Energy, and Sunwoda, which supports its market position [2] Overseas Expansion - The company has achieved stable mass production shipments to Toyota PPES, with monthly sales exceeding 100 tons, and plans to further deepen this cooperation [2] - It is progressing with a ternary cathode material production project in France in collaboration with Axens, which could enhance its global influence [2] New Product Development - Mid-nickel ternary materials have passed initial validation by overseas customers, with ton-level deliveries achieved [2] - High-nickel ternary materials have passed tests for multiple high-end applications, including automotive, drones, and manned aircraft, and are in small-scale production [2] - The company's second-generation sodium-ion battery products are ready for mass production, and its solid-state battery cathode materials are part of a national-level innovation consortium [2] Valuation and Financial Metrics - The company's PE ratio for 2025 and 2026 is projected at 74x and 36x, respectively, based on the closing price on October 28, 2024 [2] - Key financial metrics include a gross margin of 4.41%, 6.27%, 9.21%, and 10.65% for 2023-2026, and a net profit margin of -1.16%, -2.40%, 1.73%, and 2.61% for the same period [5]