天目湖2024Q3年业绩点评：极端天气客流承压，关注新增项目进展

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][17]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on customer flow due to extreme weather conditions during the summer, particularly in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions [2][3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised downwards to 0.43, 0.51, and 0.55 yuan respectively, reflecting a decrease of approximately 31% for each year [2]. - The target price has been adjusted to 13.20 yuan, a reduction of 19% from previous estimates, based on an industry average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 26x for 2025 [2]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 369 million yuan, with a projected increase to 630 million yuan in 2023, followed by a decrease to 570 million yuan in 2024 [1]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 20 million yuan in 2022 to 147 million yuan in 2023, before declining to 116 million yuan in 2024 [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.54 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 0.43 yuan in 2024 [1]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 1.7% in 2022 to 11.0% in 2023, then decline to 8.5% in 2024 [1]. Performance Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.05 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, which is a 15% decrease compared to the previous year, but a 5% increase compared to 2019 [2]. - The gross profit for the same period was 2.14 billion yuan, down 20% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.85 billion yuan, down 29% year-on-year [2]. - The company is focusing on new project developments, including the Tianmu Lake Animal Kingdom project, which is expected to enhance long-term performance [2][3].