HLGF(600346) 国泰君安·2024-10-29 05:07Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 17.42 yuan, down from the previous target of 18.15 yuan [3][10] Core Views - Q3 2024 performance fell short of expectations due to declining chemical product prices and narrowing spreads [10] - The company is leveraging its large-scale refining platform to build new momentum, with high dividend payouts emphasizing shareholder returns [10] - Anticipates a recovery in chemical product demand, supported by recent economic stimulus policies [10] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 net profit was 1.087 billion yuan, down 59.01% year-on-year and 42.26% quarter-on-quarter [10] - Q3 2024 average prices for key chemical products (PX, PTA, benzene, ethylene, ethylene glycol) declined by 9.16%, 8.49%, 6.09%, 1.30%, and 3.69% respectively [10] - PX-naphtha, PTA-PX, and ethylene-naphtha spreads narrowed by 22.70%, 153.84%, and 2.26% respectively [10] Market and Valuation - Current stock price is 14.32 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 11.45-16.52 yuan [5] - Market capitalization stands at 100.8 billion yuan [5] - Price-to-book ratio is 1.6, with a net debt ratio of 219.59% [6] Strategic Developments - The company is expanding its new material production capacity, including 1.6 million tons/year of high-performance resins, functional films, lithium battery separators, and optical films [10] - Plans to distribute 3.871 billion yuan in cash dividends for 2023, representing 56% of net profit [10] Industry Outlook - Chemical product prices are at a cyclical bottom, with industry expansion nearing its end, indicating a potential turning point [10] - Recent economic stimulus policies, including reductions in existing home loan rates, are expected to boost demand for chemical products [10]