HLGF(600346) 长江证券·2024-10-29 06:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hengli Petrochemical (600346 SH) [3] Core Views - Hengli Petrochemical's Q3 2024 performance was impacted by declining oil prices, with revenue growth slowing to 2 69% YoY and net profit attributable to shareholders dropping by 10 45% YoY [1][4] - The company's refining and chemical business is expected to improve in the future due to limited PX supply growth and steady downstream demand [4] - Hengli Petrochemical is a unique integrated petrochemical company with deep integration of oil, coal, and chemical production, which significantly reduces operating costs [5] - The company is focusing on reducing capital expenditures, increasing dividend payouts, and strengthening shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio of 56 07% in 2023 [6] - New projects in fine chemicals and new materials are expected to contribute to future growth, with several projects scheduled for completion by 2025 [6] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Hengli Petrochemical reported revenue of 177 764 billion yuan, a 2 69% YoY increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 5 105 billion yuan, a 10 45% YoY decline [4] - The company's operating cash flow decreased by 16 03% YoY to 20 117 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2024 [4] - For 2024-2026, the report forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders of 6 81 billion yuan, 9 58 billion yuan, and 11 97 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14 8X, 10 5X, and 8 4X [7] Industry Analysis - The refining and chemical industry faced challenges in Q3 2024 due to weak domestic demand, seasonal factors, and the impact of new energy vehicles on gasoline demand [4] - Overseas markets also experienced a lack of seasonal demand, leading to a significant decline in PX profitability, with PX spreads dropping by 21 6% QoQ to 269 USD/ton in Q3 2024 [4] Company Strengths - Hengli Petrochemical operates a large-scale integrated industrial park with 20 million tons of refining capacity, 5 million tons of coal chemical capacity, 1 5 million tons of ethylene capacity, and 12 million tons of PTA capacity, which provides significant cost advantages [5] - The company has self-sufficient hydrogen production, low-cost power generation, and extensive logistics infrastructure, further reducing production and operating costs [5]