HIKVISION(002415) 东方证券·2024-10-30 06:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 47.25 CNY based on a 27x PE valuation for 2025 [2][4][9] Core Insights - The company's Q3 revenue remained flat year-on-year at 23.78 billion CNY, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 13% to 3.04 billion CNY. For the first three quarters, revenue grew by 6% to 64.99 billion CNY, but net profit fell by 8% to 8.11 billion CNY [1] - The report highlights a divergence in domestic business performance, with the company actively adjusting SMBG inventory. PBG showed positive revenue growth in Q3, particularly in digital governance-related sectors such as water management and emergency management, while SMBG experienced a significant decline due to inventory reduction efforts [1] - The overseas business and innovation sectors continued to grow, with the overseas main business maintaining growth albeit at a slower pace. The demand for project-based sales is increasing, especially in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [1] Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 1.52 CNY, 1.75 CNY, and 2.01 CNY for 2024-2026, respectively, with adjustments made to revenue and expense ratios [2][9] - The projected revenue for 2024 is 96.25 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 8%. The operating profit is expected to be 16.16 billion CNY, reflecting a slight increase of 1% [7][9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 14.04 billion CNY in 2024, showing a slight decrease of 1% compared to 2023 [7][9]