BANK OF CHANGSHA(601577) 国盛证券·2024-10-30 10:21Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating for Changsha Bank (601577 SH) with a 2024 P/B of approximately 0 48x [3] Core Views - Changsha Bank's Q3 2024 net interest margin (NIM) is expected to stabilize, with revenue and net profit growth improving [1] - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1 16% and a provision coverage ratio of 314 54% as of Q3 2024 [1] - The bank's revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 19 47 billion yuan and 6 19 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 3 8% and 5 9% [1] Performance Analysis - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue and net profit growth rates were 3 8% and 5 9%, respectively, showing improvement compared to H1 2024 [2] - Net interest income for Q1-Q3 2024 decreased by 0 98% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in Q3 compared to Q2 [2] - Fee and commission income for Q1-Q3 2024 decreased by 17 8% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed compared to H1 2024 [2] - Other non-interest income for Q1-Q3 2024 increased by 46 3% year-on-year, driven by increased investment in asset allocation [2] Asset Quality - The NPL ratio remained stable at 1 16% as of Q3 2024, while the special mention loan ratio increased by 22bps to 2 48% [2] - The provision coverage ratio improved to 314 54% in Q3 2024, up by 1 8 percentage points from Q2 2024 [2] - The annualized credit cost for Q1-Q3 2024 was 1 73%, slightly lower than H1 2024 [2] Asset and Liability Structure - Total assets and loans as of Q3 2024 were 1 12 trillion yuan and 543 2 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 10 4% and 11 3% [3] - Investment assets grew by 10 1% in Q3 2024, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2 4 percentage points [3] - Total liabilities and deposits as of Q3 2024 were 1 04 trillion yuan and 688 7 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9 9% and 8 9% [3] Financial Projections - Expected net profit for 2024-2026 is 7 83 billion yuan, 8 32 billion yuan, and 8 85 billion yuan, with growth rates of 4 92%, 6 24%, and 6 36%, respectively [3] - Revenue growth for 2024-2026 is projected at 5 49%, 6 01%, and 6 12%, respectively [4] - Net interest margin (NIM) is expected to decline from 1 93% in 2024 to 1 65% in 2026 [8] Valuation Metrics - The 2024 P/E ratio is projected at 4 26x, with a P/B ratio of 0 48x [8] - EPS for 2024-2026 is expected to be 1 95 yuan, 2 07 yuan, and 2 20 yuan, respectively [8]