GUANGDONG TAPAI GROUP CO.(002233) 国泰君安·2024-10-30 21:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.93 billion yuan for Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 28.81%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 381 million yuan, down 37.98% year-on-year. The performance slightly exceeded expectations, primarily due to significant gains from securities investments at the end of the quarter [4][5]. - The cement and clinker shipment decline has narrowed quarter-on-quarter, indicating a stabilization in core business profitability. The first peak season in Q4 is expected to boost prices and profit expectations [3][4]. - The company, as a leader in the eastern Guangdong region, possesses strong regional influence, and the implementation of a series of policies may improve demand in Q4 [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved cement and clinker sales of 1.0611 million tons and 50.6 thousand tons, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 15% and 31%. In Q3 2024, sales were 365.8 thousand tons and 14.9 thousand tons, down 14% and 50% year-on-year. The decline in shipments has narrowed quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The average price of cement in Q3 2024 is estimated at 227 yuan per ton, with a gross profit of approximately 43 yuan per ton, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of about 18 yuan and 8 yuan, respectively [4]. Market Outlook - The traditional peak season in southern China is expected to provide some support for prices, with external cement influences diminishing. The company anticipates a recovery in prices and profitability in Q4 due to seasonal price adjustments [4][5]. - The report estimates that non-operating profit contributions significantly increased, with non-recurring gains expected to be around 93.65 million yuan, up approximately 90.27 million yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the recovery of stock indices at the end of the quarter [4].