晋控煤业：Q3量价稳中有增，业绩环比改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's Q3 performance showed stable growth in both volume and price, leading to improved performance compared to the previous quarter. The coal production and sales volume are expected to increase year-on-year [7]. - The report highlights that despite a weak coal price environment, the company managed to increase its self-produced coal prices, indicating a recovery in profitability [7]. - The forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted downwards due to weak coal prices, with expected revenues of 150.13 billion, 154.01 billion, and 156.44 billion respectively, and net profits of 27.87 billion, 30.03 billion, and 31.31 billion respectively [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 112.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.19% year-on-year, and a net profit of 21.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.62% year-on-year [7]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 38.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.38% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.60% [7]. - The coal production for the first three quarters was 25.79 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%, while the sales volume was 22.07 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.30% year-on-year [7]. Price and Cost Analysis - The average unit price for coal in the first three quarters was 494 yuan/ton, a slight increase year-on-year, while the unit cost was 262 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62% year-on-year [7]. - In Q3 2024, the unit price was 492 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.69% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.19% [7]. Production Capacity - The company currently has a total production capacity of 34.5 million tons per year from its two controlling coal mines, with a capacity utilization rate of 102.80% in Q3 2024 [7]. - The report anticipates that the company will maintain high production levels in Q4, with a year-on-year increase in total production expected [7]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised, with expected earnings per share of 1.67, 1.79, and 1.87 yuan respectively [7]. - The current stock price of 15.45 yuan corresponds to a P/E ratio of 9.3X for 2024, 8.6X for 2025, and 8.3X for 2026 [7].