Shanxi Coking Coal Energy (000983) 国泰君安·2024-10-31 17:36Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Shanxi Coking Coal (000983) with a target price raised to 9.60 yuan from the previous 9.12 yuan [5][4]. Core Views - The report anticipates an increase in coal volume but a decrease in price for Q3, with expectations of improved production and sales in Q4 to offset price declines. The company's asset structure is being optimized, and future growth is expected due to capacity expansion [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 33.093 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.846 billion yuan, down 49.52% year-on-year. Q3 net profit was 880 million yuan, a decrease of 21.54% year-on-year and 13.42% quarter-on-quarter, aligning with market expectations [4][10]. Production and Sales Outlook - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 11.5 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.58%. The average benchmark coal price for Shanxi Coking Coal in Q3 was 1488 points, down 56 points from the previous quarter. The increase in revenue is attributed to higher production and sales volumes, which had been impacted by regulatory measures earlier in the year [4][10]. Cost and Expenses - The operating cost for Q3 2024 was 7.687 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.82%, primarily due to increased coal production and sales. Total expenses amounted to 1.663 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.41% [4]. Future Growth Potential - The company is expected to see a further increase in production and sales in Q4 2024, driven by the resumption of operations at two mines. The average benchmark coal price for Q4 is projected to be 1363 points, down 125 points from Q3. The report suggests that macroeconomic policy changes could stimulate demand and profitability recovery in the steel sector, making coking coal a preferred cyclical investment [4][10]. Asset Structure and Capacity Expansion - Since 2022, the company has significantly improved its asset structure, reducing its debt-to-asset ratio from 69% in 2021 to 46% currently. The company plans to allocate more funds for capacity expansion, having recently acquired exploration rights for coal and bauxite with a planned capacity of 8 million tons per year [4][10].