天目湖：2024年三季报点评：极端天气影响业绩表现，关注旅游消费需求转变

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianmu Lake (603136 SH) with a target PE of 22X 17X 15X for 2024-2026 [1][5] Core Views - Tianmu Lake's revenue and net profit declined in Q3 2024 due to extreme weather impacting operations Revenue fell 14 77% YoY to 405 million yuan while net profit attributable to shareholders dropped 28 84% to 85 42 million yuan [1][3] - The company remains one of the best managed and growth oriented companies in the scenic spot sector with a clear development strategy focusing on local expansion and new projects [1][5] - Future growth will be driven by the completion of the Animal Kingdom project in Liyang and potential breakthroughs in regional expansion supported by local state owned assets [1][5] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 141 million yuan down 26 35% YoY with net profit attributable to shareholders at 32 86 million yuan a 42 96% YoY decline [3] - Gross margin and net margin for Q3 2024 were 52 84% and 24 88% respectively down 3 31pct and 4 54pct YoY [4] - Operating expenses ratio increased to 18 90% in Q3 2024 up 1 48pct YoY driven by higher sales and management expenses [4] Industry Context - Domestic tourism in Q3 2024 saw 1 512 billion trips a 17 2% YoY increase with total spending reaching 1 62 trillion yuan up 16 1% YoY [3] - Long distance travel recovery due to visa free policies has diverted some tourists from the Yangtze River Delta region but demand is expected to return to the region in the future [3] Company Strategy - Tianmu Lake actively launched new products and activities during the summer including brand events like "Splash Summer" and "Aurora Night" to attract visitors [4] - The company plans to focus on local expansion in Liyang with incremental functional improvements and the launch of the Animal Kingdom project over the next three years [1][5] Financial Forecasts - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 135 million yuan 178 million yuan and 198 million yuan for 2024 2025 and 2026 respectively [1][5] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 22X 17X and 15X for 2024 2025 and 2026 [1][5]