山西汾酒：2024年三季报点评：稳中有进，聚焦高质量发展

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809 SH) [3][5] Core Views - Shanxi Fenjiu achieved steady growth in Q3 2024, with revenue and net profit increasing by 17 25% and 20 34% YoY respectively for the first three quarters [2] - The company demonstrated strong resilience in its base market and continued to optimize its product structure, with mid-to-high-end liquor revenue growing by 6 73% YoY in Q3 [2] - The report highlights the company's focus on high-quality development, with a solid long-term growth logic supported by its nationalization strategy and product structure optimization [3] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached 8 611 billion yuan, up 11 35% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2 940 billion yuan, a 10 36% YoY increase [2] - The company's gross margin slightly declined by 0 75 percentage points to 74 29% in Q3 2024, mainly due to product structure adjustments [2] - Contract liabilities stood at 5 481 billion yuan at the end of Q3 2024, a decrease of 251 million yuan from the previous quarter [2] Regional and Product Analysis - Domestic revenue in Shanxi province grew by 12 12% YoY in Q3 2024, while out-of-province revenue increased by 10 95% [2] - Mid-to-high-end liquor accounted for 61 88 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a 6 73% YoY growth, while other liquor products grew by 25 62% [2] - The company continued to deepen its market presence in the Yangtze River Delta and South China regions, steadily advancing its nationalization process [2] Future Projections - Revenue is expected to reach 37 139 billion yuan in 2024, with a YoY growth of 16 3%, and projected to grow to 49 090 billion yuan by 2026 [3][4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 12 427 billion yuan in 2024, with a YoY growth of 19 1%, and expected to reach 16 892 billion yuan by 2026 [3][4] - The company's PE ratio is projected to decrease from 20x in 2024 to 15x in 2026, indicating potential valuation upside [4] Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on four major products across different price segments, strengthening organizational management, and promoting professional operations [3] - Regional strategy emphasizes optimizing market layout, deepening coverage in key markets, and enhancing marketing model reforms [3] - Digital transformation is being utilized to improve efficiency and market control, with the Fenxiang Liyu model showing initial effectiveness [3]