VANKE(000002) 天风证券·2024-11-01 13:49Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a 6-month outlook maintained [3]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and a shift to net losses in the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue of CNY 219.9 billion, down 24.25% year-on-year, and a net loss of CNY 17.9 billion [1][2]. - The company is actively managing its debt obligations and has successfully completed all public debt repayments for the year, indicating a focus on financial stability [1]. - Despite the challenging market conditions, the company is seeing a narrowing decline in sales, with a total contracted sales area of 13.3 million square meters and a sales amount of CNY 181.2 billion, down 26.8% and 35.4% year-on-year respectively [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be CNY 330.7 billion, reflecting a decrease of 29.00% compared to 2023 [2][8]. - The company is expected to report a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY -15.5 billion in 2024, a significant decline from previous years [2][8]. - The gross profit margin for the company is reported at 9.5%, showing a slight recovery from the first half of 2024 but a decline compared to the same period last year [1]. Sales and Operational Insights - The company achieved a third-quarter revenue of CNY 77.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.76%, with the real estate development business contributing CNY 61.6 billion [1]. - The company has accelerated inventory turnover, achieving CNY 32.5 billion in sales from existing properties and CNY 43.4 billion from near-completion properties [1]. - New project launches have been successful, with a 100% sales rate for three projects in Shenyang and Xuzhou [1]. Debt and Cash Flow Management - As of the end of Q3 2024, the company had interest-bearing liabilities of CNY 327.6 billion, with 64.4% maturing in over one year [1]. - The company reported a positive operating cash flow of CNY 330 million in Q3, continuing a trend of positive cash flow since Q2 [1][7]. - The cash and cash equivalents decreased to CNY 79.8 billion, down CNY 12.7 billion from the mid-year [1]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to navigate through the current industry adjustments and leverage financial support policies to mitigate potential risks, aiming for a high-quality transformation in the new development phase [1]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is expected to improve to CNY -2.9 billion, with a return to profitability anticipated in 2026 with a net profit of CNY 1.0 billion [2][8].