泸州老窖：业绩增速放缓，静待行业恢复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 185.06 CNY based on a 19x P/E ratio for 2024 [2][4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 24.3 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.59 billion CNY, up 9.7% year-on-year [1]. - The third quarter saw a revenue of 7.4 billion CNY, reflecting a modest growth of 0.7%, while net profit for the quarter was 3.57 billion CNY, an increase of 2.6% year-on-year [1]. - The industry is experiencing a downturn, leading to a slowdown in performance growth, attributed to reduced banquet frequency and consumer spending power, particularly affecting mid-to-high-end products [1]. - The company is focusing on cost control, with a gross margin of 88.4% for the first three quarters, and a slight increase in net profit margin to 48.1% in Q3 [1]. - The company has a diversified product matrix that enhances its resilience against industry fluctuations, although achieving the annual revenue target of 15% growth may be challenging [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected earnings per share for 2024-2026 are 9.74 CNY, 11.70 CNY, and 13.76 CNY respectively, revised down from previous estimates [2][7]. - The revenue forecast for 2024 is set at 33.5 billion CNY, with a projected growth rate of 10.8% [3]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable, with slight improvements anticipated in the coming years [3].