山西焦煤：产销干扰煤价下滑拖累业绩，竞得探矿权实现资源增厚

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) is "Buy" (maintained) [1]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's performance has been negatively impacted by a decline in coal prices due to production and sales disruptions. However, the acquisition of exploration rights has enhanced the company's resource base, which is expected to support sustainable development [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2022A: 65,183 million - 2023A: 55,523 million (down 15% YoY) - 2024E: 45,249 million (down 19% YoY) - 2025E: 49,530 million (up 9% YoY) - 2026E: 51,849 million (up 5% YoY) [1][2] - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2022A: 10,722 million - 2023A: 6,771 million (down 37% YoY) - 2024E: 3,553 million (down 48% YoY) - 2025E: 4,649 million (up 31% YoY) - 2026E: 5,095 million (up 10% YoY) [1][2] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2022A: 1.89 - 2023A: 1.19 - 2024E: 0.63 - 2025E: 0.82 - 2026E: 0.90 [1][2] Operational Insights - The company faced production disruptions due to safety incidents at its coal mines, which affected its output. The report notes that the company is expected to recover production levels gradually [1][2]. - The report highlights that the company successfully acquired exploration rights for coal and associated bauxite resources, which is anticipated to bolster its competitive advantage and resource reserves [1][2]. Market Comparison - The report mentions that the company's stock price as of October 30, 2024, was 8.28 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 47,006.40 million [1][2]. Valuation Metrics - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2022A: 4.4 - 2023A: 6.9 - 2024E: 13.2 - 2025E: 10.1 - 2026E: 9.2 [1][2] - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: - 2022A: 1.4 - 2023A: 1.2 - 2024E: 1.3 - 2025E: 1.3 - 2026E: 1.3 [1][2]