国投电力：水电利润持续增长，火电板块略承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 44.4 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.58 billion yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 17.29 billion yuan, a 6.9% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.83 billion yuan, up 4.4% year-on-year [1]. - The hydropower segment showed strong performance with a significant increase in generation and revenue, while the thermal power segment faced challenges due to reduced generation and pricing pressures [2][3]. Summary by Sections Hydropower Performance - In Q3, the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower generation reached 33.71 billion kWh, a 24.6% increase year-on-year, with an average on-grid electricity price decline of only 1.4%, which was better than market expectations [2]. - The revenue from Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower in Q3 was approximately 8.613 billion yuan, a 22% increase year-on-year, with net profit around 3.561 billion yuan, up 16.7% year-on-year [2]. Thermal Power Performance - The thermal power generation in Q3 was 16.14 billion kWh, down 5.6% year-on-year, with the average on-grid electricity price at 0.459 yuan per kWh, a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year [3]. - The decline in thermal power generation and pricing has put pressure on the revenue and profit from this segment [3]. New Energy Development - The company added 1.6557 million kW of new installed capacity from January to September 2024, with solar power generation increasing by 50.4% year-on-year to 1.28 billion kWh in Q3 [4]. - However, the on-grid electricity prices for wind and solar power decreased by 0.9% and 25.1% respectively in Q3, indicating pricing pressures in the new energy sector [4]. Financial Forecasts - The report adjusts profit expectations for the company, forecasting net profits of 7.45 billion yuan, 8.32 billion yuan, and 8.85 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.5, 13.9, and 13 times [4].