GreatStar(002444) 华创证券·2024-11-03 15:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 35 yuan [1][2]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 30.3% year-on-year in Q3 2024, reaching 4.38 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 740 million yuan, up 17.1% year-on-year [1][2]. - The end of inventory destocking in North America has led to a recovery in orders, with Q1 and Q2 revenue growth rates of 29.4% and 26.2%, respectively. The new capacity in Southeast Asia has also contributed to meeting over 90% of downstream order demand [2]. - The gross profit margin in Q3 2024 improved sequentially to 32.9%, despite a slight year-on-year decline of 0.5 percentage points. The increase is attributed to product mix changes and the appreciation of the yuan, which impacted costs [2]. - The company has accelerated its overseas capacity layout, with 65% of its North American revenue coming from overseas production, significantly reducing tariff risks [2]. - The investment suggestion highlights the company's leadership in the global hand tools market, with expectations for a new cycle of growth driven by the recovery in the U.S. real estate market and retail inventory replenishment [2]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company's main revenue is projected at 10.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 13.3%. However, revenue is expected to rebound with growth rates of 27.2%, 24.2%, and 20.8% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 1.69 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.15 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 27.3% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 1.41 yuan in 2023 to 1.79 yuan in 2024, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16 times [3].