VANKE(000002) 长江证券·2024-11-04 02:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Vanke A (000002 SZ) [8] Core Views - Vanke A is actively managing inventory and disposing assets to improve cash flow, targeting over 30 billion yuan in recoveries for 2024 (23 3 billion yuan already signed in the first nine months) [1] - The company is leveraging financing tools like operating property loans and integrating into urban real estate financing coordination mechanisms to transform its financing model [1] - Despite industry pressures, Vanke A maintains a competitive edge in brand and efficiency, with its development business remaining relatively stable and its existing business holding significant value [1] - The company's core focus is on maintaining a balanced capital chain to navigate liquidity pressures and successfully cycle through the downturn [1] Financial Performance - Vanke A reported a 24 3% YoY decline in revenue to 219 9 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2024, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 17 9 billion yuan (compared to a profit of 13 6 billion yuan in the same period last year) [2] - The gross margin dropped to 9 5%, down 8 1 percentage points YoY, with the development business gross margin falling to 8 3% (down 10 2 percentage points) [3] - Asset and credit impairment losses surged to 7 47 billion yuan (compared to 360 million yuan in the same period last year), while investment income plummeted 97 1% to 70 million yuan [3] - The company incurred a 2 54 billion yuan loss from asset disposals (compared to a 70 million yuan loss in the same period last year) [3] Sales and Inventory Management - Vanke A's sales for the first nine months of 2024 were 181 2 billion yuan, down 35 4% YoY, with sales area declining 26 8% to 13 308 million square meters [4] - The average selling price dropped 11 8% to 13,600 yuan per square meter, likely due to inventory structure adjustments and discount promotions [4] - The company accelerated inventory clearance, with sales of completed properties, near-completion properties, and commercial properties reaching 32 5 billion yuan, 43 4 billion yuan, and 19 7 billion yuan, respectively [4] - Land acquisition intensity was 2 3% in terms of amount and 2 8% in terms of area, with new construction starts and completions down 57 7% and 27 7%, respectively [4] Diversified Business Operations - Vanke A's diversified business revenue reached 43 08 billion yuan, up 6 3% YoY [5] - Property services expanded with a 12% YoY increase in annualized saturated income from existing projects [5] - Commercial business revenue grew 1 5% to 6 67 billion yuan, with foot traffic and sales increasing by 9 6% and 4 1%, respectively [5] - Logistics and warehousing revenue slightly declined by 0 7% to 2 96 billion yuan, with 151 projects in operation covering 10 34 million square meters [5] - Long-term rental apartment revenue increased 3 7% to 2 63 billion yuan, with 247,000 units in hand and 187,000 units in operation [5] Financial Projections - The report forecasts net losses attributable to shareholders of 20 2 billion yuan and 2 billion yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with a projected profit of 2 2 billion yuan in 2026 [6] - The 2026 earnings correspond to a P/E ratio of 51x [6] Market Performance - Vanke A's stock price as of October 30, 2024, was 9 22 yuan, with a 12-month high/low of 12 30 yuan and 6 18 yuan, respectively [8] - The company's market performance over the past 12 months has underperformed the CSI 300 index [9]