五洲特纸：产能有序释放，静待盈利改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set to achieve a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.03 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 90 million yuan, down 20.5% year-on-year [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 5.47 billion yuan, up 17.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 330 million yuan, which is a significant increase of 205.9% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in Q3 profit is attributed to the gradual consumption of previously high-cost raw materials, but with the recent drop in wood pulp prices and the ongoing production of self-sufficient pulp lines, profitability is expected to improve in Q4 [1][3]. Summary by Sections Production Capacity and Integration - The company is in a phase of orderly capacity release, with total paper and pulp production capacity exceeding 2.39 million tons across three major bases in Quzhou, Jiangxi, and Hubei [2]. - Ongoing projects include new production lines for industrial packaging paper and specialty papers, which are expected to further enhance production scale [2]. - The company has successfully launched a 300,000-ton chemical pulp production line, achieving a balance in pulp and paper production, which will improve cost efficiency and support future product structure optimization [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 10.7%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.03 percentage points [3]. - The company anticipates that the cost benefits from the consumption of high-cost inventory will become evident in Q4, leading to improved profitability [3]. Financial Forecasts - The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, with expected net profits of 440 million yuan, 580 million yuan, and 760 million yuan respectively, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates due to ongoing raw material cost pressures [4]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for the same period are 12x, 9x, and 7x respectively [4]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 6.52 billion yuan in 2023 to 7.70 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 18.1% [9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase significantly from 273 million yuan in 2023 to 436 million yuan in 2024, marking a growth rate of 59.7% [9]. - The company’s current price-to-earnings ratio is 19.64, with a projected decrease to 12.30 in 2024 [9].