Flat(601865) 东方财富·2024-11-05 08:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook despite recent losses [5]. Core Views - The company's first quarterly loss signals a potential industry bottom, with expectations for supply-side optimization and gradual recovery in prices due to reduced production and increased cold repairs [5]. - The company has a significant competitive advantage as a leading photovoltaic glass manufacturer, which is expected to enhance its profitability resilience during industry downturns [5]. Summary by Sections Operating Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 14.604 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.06%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.296 billion yuan, down 34.18%. In Q3 alone, revenue was 3.908 billion yuan, a decline of 37.03% year-on-year and 21.37% quarter-on-quarter, resulting in a net loss of 203 million yuan, marking the first quarterly loss since its listing [1]. Industry Profitability - As of now, the price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass is 12.5 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 38% year-on-year decline, severely squeezing profitability across the industry [1]. Industry Capacity - According to statistics from Zhuochuang Information, the industry added 1,200 tons/day of new capacity in H2 2024, while cold repairs accounted for 11,090 tons/day, resulting in a net capacity reduction of approximately 10,000 tons. Many small to medium-sized enterprises are accelerating cold repairs, with numerous new investment projects being announced as terminated or delayed [1]. Company Capacity - The company's current capacity is approximately 20,000 tons/day, with Zhuochuang Information reporting an operational capacity of 21,000 tons/day [1]. Company Advantages - The company has significant advantages in technology, cost, and management, with over 90% of its large kilns being of 1,000 tons or more, leading to lower energy consumption and improved yield rates. The breakthrough in technology for large kilns is expected to further reduce costs [2]. Profit Forecast - The report adjusts the profit forecast, estimating revenues of 19.2 billion yuan, 28.5 billion yuan, and 36.3 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.2 billion yuan, 1.9 billion yuan, and 2.9 billion yuan for the same years, with EPS of 0.50, 0.82, and 1.26 yuan per share [5][6].