公 司 研 究 / 非 银 金 融 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 新华保险（601336）深度研究 治理革新+权益弹性+负债质变，三层驱 动重塑成长逻辑 2026 年 02 月 13 日 【投资要点】 【投资建议】 展望未来，若资本市场持续向好，公司业绩具备更强向上弹性。在治 理红利释放、资产端弹性充足、负债端转型深化的持续驱动下，我们 对公司的发展前景保持乐观，预计 2025E-2027E 公司归母净利润分别 为 392.44/423.60/441.30 亿元，yoy+49.6%/+7.9%/+4.2%。综合考虑 PEV/PB/PE 估值后，维持"增持"评级。 挖掘价值投资成长 增持（维持） 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：王舫朝 证书编号：S1160524090005 证券分析师：廖紫苑 证书编号：S1160524120004 相对指数表现 -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 2025/2 2025/8 2026/2 新华保险 沪深300 | 基本数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总市值（百万元） | 242,388.77 | | 流通市值（百万元） | 162,038.64 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the domestic computing power industry chain, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that AI inference is leading innovation, with a focus on demand-driven Opex-related areas, specifically storage, power, ASIC, and supernodes [2][28]. - It highlights the expected growth in the domestic storage industry, driven by new products from Yangtze Memory Technologies and Changxin Memory Technologies, alongside a rapid increase in demand for SSDs and HBM [2][29]. - The report anticipates a significant expansion year for storage production, suggesting investors pay close attention to the overall opportunities within the domestic storage industry chain [29]. - The power industry is also highlighted, with a focus on new technologies on both the supply and demand sides, including companies like Sanhua Group and Zhongfu Circuit [30]. - The ASIC segment is expected to see an increase in market share, with a focus on major CSP manufacturers [30]. - The report predicts an evolution in cabinet models, with growth in demand for high-speed interconnects, cabinet OEM, liquid cooling, and PCB [30]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.11%, and the overall Shenwan Electronics Index decreased by 5.23% [1][13]. - Year-to-date, the Shenwan Electronics Index has declined by 4.73%, ranking 14th out of 31 sectors [1][13]. Weekly Focus - Nvidia's upcoming Arm architecture-based N1X + N1 processor is discussed, indicating a strategic move into the AI PC and laptop market, competing directly with AMD and Intel [26][27]. - The report notes that Nvidia's new processors will utilize TSMC's 3nm process technology, enhancing performance while maintaining low power consumption [26][27]. Related Research - Previous reports have consistently highlighted the positive outlook for the domestic computing power industry chain, including price increases in semiconductor packaging and storage chips [4][6][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong investment rating for the public utility sector, emphasizing a focus on "dividend + growth" opportunities and an increased allocation towards solid waste management in the environmental sector [1][5]. Core Insights - The public utility sector's fund allocation stabilized and increased in Q4 2025, with a market value of approximately 144.54 billion yuan, accounting for 0.39% of total fund allocation, a slight increase of 0.02% from the previous quarter [5][18]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on leading companies that possess both dividend attributes and growth potential, particularly in light of improved profitability expectations due to capacity and electricity price policies [5][23]. - The environmental sector is advised to concentrate on solid waste management operations and companies with marginal improvements or thematic flexibility, as the demand for green fuels continues to tighten [5][27]. Summary by Sections Public Utility Sector Dynamics - In February 2026, the average transaction price for electricity in Jiangsu was 312.80 yuan/MWh, a decrease of 3.67% month-on-month and 23.89% year-on-year. In Shanxi, the average price was 288.65 yuan/MWh, down 1.17% month-on-month and 10.95% year-on-year [2][41]. - The total national power generation in December 2025 was approximately 858.6 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.46% and a month-on-month increase of 10.19% [2][44]. Fund Holdings Overview - The top ten stocks in the public utility sector by fund holdings in Q4 2025 included Changjiang Electric Power, Huaneng International, and China Nuclear Power, with significant increases in holdings for Huaneng International and Changjiang Electric Power [5][23][24]. - In the environmental sector, the top ten stocks by fund holdings included Weiming Environmental and Huanlan Environment, with notable increases in holdings for Weiming Environmental and Dadi Ocean [5][27][28]. Price Tracking - The report tracks the price trends of various energy sources, noting that the CCI index for thermal coal was 696 yuan/ton as of February 4, 2026, reflecting a slight increase [7][29]. - The LNG ex-factory price index in China was reported at 3965 yuan/ton, showing a decrease of 1.98% [8][29].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [5]. Core Insights - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas orders, with new contracts amounting to 7.2 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 140.1%. In Q4 alone, new overseas orders reached 2.2 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 568.4% [4]. - The company has demonstrated continuous improvement in cash flow, with operating net cash flow rising from -243 million yuan in 2021 to 771 million yuan in 2024. The cash collection ratio improved to 112.06% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating strong cash management [4]. - A shareholder return plan was announced, projecting an average net profit of 680 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a commitment to distribute at least 70% of the annual net profit or a minimum of 400 million yuan in dividends, enhancing the company's high dividend yield profile [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Data - Total market capitalization is 9,254.08 million yuan, with a 52-week high of 4.75 yuan and a low of 2.96 yuan. The stock has seen a 52-week increase of 57.09% [4]. Profit Forecast - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 629 million yuan, 729 million yuan, and 826 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.71, 12.70, and 11.20 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [3]. Core Insights - The commercialization of Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADC) is accelerating, with 20 ADC drugs approved globally, and 6 of them consistently generating over $1 billion in revenue for two consecutive years. The competition in the ADC market is entering a new phase, with approximately 60 ADC drugs currently in clinical phase 3 or awaiting market approval [6][30]. - Domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies are adopting various strategies for ADC capacity layout, with companies like Rongchang Biopharma transitioning from outsourcing to in-house production, while others like Kelong Biotechnology are building their own production bases [6][31]. - The recent revision of the "Regulations on the Implementation of the Drug Administration Law of the People's Republic of China" supports segmented contract manufacturing and commercial-scale drug sales, providing a foundation for ADC commercialization partnerships [6][32]. Market Performance - The pharmaceutical index rose by 0.14% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.47 percentage points, ranking 15th in industry performance [10]. - Since the beginning of 2026, the pharmaceutical index has increased by 3.28%, again outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.99 percentage points, ranking 23rd [10]. - The best-performing sub-sector this week was Traditional Chinese Medicine, which increased by 2.56%, while Chemical Pharmaceuticals and Biological Products saw declines of 0.62% and 1.82%, respectively [15][17]. Stock Performance - Among A-share pharmaceutical stocks, the top five performers this week were Guangshengtang (+29.83%), Haixiang Pharmaceutical (+18.64%), and Meidixi (+18.04%) [20]. - In the Hong Kong market, the top performers included Yiteng Jiahe (+14%) and Kedi-B (+9.96%), with 38 out of 116 pharmaceutical stocks rising, representing 32.76% [24][25]. Industry News and Policies - The inclusion of implantable brain-machine interfaces in the category of Class III medical devices marks a significant regulatory development, indicating a focus on innovative medical technologies [27]. - Novartis has submitted an application for the marketing of Ianalumab in China, a drug targeting various autoimmune diseases, which has shown promising results in clinical trials [27]. - Johnson & Johnson announced the approval of Daratumumab injection for a new combination therapy in China, providing a new treatment option for multiple myeloma patients [28].

Group 1: Fund Overview - As of the end of 2025, there are 255 amortized cost bond funds with a total net asset value of approximately CNY 2.04 trillion, an increase of about CNY 612 billion from Q3 2025[4] - The total asset value of these funds is around CNY 2.78 trillion[4] - The average duration of bonds held by these funds is typically less than their closed period, which ranges from 3 to over 5 years[4] Group 2: Credit Bond Allocation - By the end of 2025, the allocation to credit bonds in amortized cost bond funds significantly increased, with non-financial credit bonds rising from 1% to 24%[17] - The market value of policy financial bonds decreased from 74% to 54% of the total allocation[17] - The core allocation among non-financial credit bonds is mid-term notes, which account for 14% of the total bond investment, with a market value of CNY 3,755.77 billion, an increase of CNY 3,675.85 billion from 2024[17] Group 3: Future Expectations - In Q1 2026, the cumulative opening scale of amortized cost bond funds is expected to reach approximately CNY 3,739.7 billion, with a peak in openings anticipated[10] - The ongoing opening of these funds is expected to provide continuous incremental demand for the credit bond market, potentially leading to differentiated performance among various credit bond types[4] - The strategy should focus on 3-5 year high-grade credit bonds, particularly those rated AA+ and above, to capitalize on the upcoming market opportunities[27]

行 业 研 究 / 建 筑 装 饰 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 继续推荐政策持续加码的未来产业成 长赛道，同时重视低位央国企配置机会 2026 年 02 月 08 日 【投资要点】 2）本周，《中共中央 国务院关于锚定农业农村现代化 扎实推进乡村 全面振兴的意见》正式发布，意见要求努力把农业建成现代化大产业， 使农村基本具备现代生活条件，让农民生活更加富裕美好。我们注意 到 2025 年国家发布《逐步把永久基本农田建成高标准农田实施方案》， 并发出通知，要求各地区各部门结合实际认真贯彻落实。主要目标是， 到 2030 年，力争累计建成高标准农田 13.5 亿亩，累计改造提升 2.8 亿亩，统筹规划、同步实施高效节水灌溉，新增高效节水灌溉面积 8000 万亩，测算高标农田建设年空间 2000 亿元，且由于政府补贴能够覆盖 30%左右成本，因此资金确定性较高。高标农田建设企业【棕榈股份】、 水系统建设企业【大禹节水】有望受益。 3）本周，上海启动收购二手住房用于保障性租赁住房工作，浦东新区、 静安区、徐汇区为首批试点区。第一批拟收购房源将着重房型匹配、 布局合理、配套成熟、交通便捷等特点，尽量精准匹配各领域人才" ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the construction materials sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2]. Core Views - The report highlights a favorable supply-demand dynamic in the electronic fabric market, with price increases expected to continue in 2026, driven by structural adjustments and strong demand for mid-to-high-end products [5][9]. - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in major cities, which is anticipated to boost the performance of consumer building materials [5][9]. - The cement industry is entering a seasonal downturn, with a slight decrease in prices and demand, but is expected to stabilize post-Chinese New Year [22][29]. Summary by Sections Cement - The cement market is experiencing a seasonal decline, with average shipment rates around 25%, down approximately 8 percentage points week-on-week [22][24]. - The average price of cement is approximately 347 RMB/ton, reflecting a decrease of 3.2 RMB/ton [22][24]. - Recommendations include companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, with a focus on potential recovery post-holiday [29]. Glass - The glass market is entering a demand lull, with production capacity decreasing to about 14.89 million tons per day, and inventory levels rising [31][41]. - The average price of float glass has increased to 1,154 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week rise of 10 RMB/ton [31][41]. - Companies to watch include Qibin Group and Xinyi Glass, as they may benefit from the anticipated stabilization in the market [41]. Fiberglass - The electronic fabric prices have increased, with 7628 electronic fabric now priced at 5.1-5.3 RMB/m, indicating a strong market outlook for 2026 [5][9]. - The report recommends China Jushi as a key player in the fiberglass sector, with additional attention on International Composite Materials and Changhai Co., Ltd. [5][9]. Carbon Fiber - Carbon fiber prices are stable, with potential demand growth driven by advancements in commercial aerospace [5][9]. - Companies like Zhongfu Shenying and Guangwei Composites are highlighted for their growth potential in this sector [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [3][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a total revenue of 1.825 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.82%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 197 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 32.77% [1]. - The revenue growth is primarily driven by increased sales of civil explosive materials, while the substantial profit growth is attributed to higher sales and improved profitability in transportation and chip module businesses [1]. - The company is set to benefit from the booming demand for civil explosives in the Tibet region, with a projected production value growth of 40.70% in 2025 [6]. - The acquisition of overseas civil explosive assets is expected to double the company's overall explosive production capacity to 53,000 tons, enhancing its market position [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 1.825 billion yuan for 2025, with a quarterly revenue of 564 million yuan in Q4 2025, marking an 8.48% year-on-year increase. The net profit for Q4 2025 is expected to reach 71 million yuan, a remarkable increase of 89.53% [1][7]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates revenues of 1.825 billion yuan, 2.381 billion yuan, and 3.223 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 7.82%, 30.53%, and 35.33% [8]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is positioned to leverage the ongoing infrastructure projects in Tibet, which are expected to drive demand for civil explosives significantly [6]. - The report emphasizes the company's potential for growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, supported by local project abundance and high demand for civil explosives [6]. Acquisition Strategy - The company plans to acquire 100% of an overseas civil explosive company for a total price of 510 million yuan, which will enhance its production capacity and market reach [6].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][56]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the snack retail industry, with significant growth in revenue and profit projected for the coming years. Revenue is expected to reach RMB 656.97 billion in 2025, RMB 837.49 billion in 2026, and RMB 925.80 billion in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 66.98%, 27.48%, and 10.54% respectively. Net profit is forecasted to be RMB 23.01 billion, RMB 34.23 billion, and RMB 42.85 billion for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 176.05%, 48.73%, and 25.19% respectively [2][56]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 2016, has rapidly expanded its store count to 21,041 by November 2025, with 59% of stores located in county and town areas. The company achieved a GMV of RMB 555 billion in 2024 and RMB 661 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, marking year-on-year increases of 262% and 74% respectively [7][15]. Store Expansion and Performance - The company has seen a continuous increase in store numbers, from 1,902 in 2022 to 21,041 by November 2025. The average daily order volume per store has also risen from 385 to 481 orders during the same period, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [15][21]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of RMB 393.4 billion and RMB 463.7 billion for 2024 and the first three quarters of 2025, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 282% and 75%. Net profits for the same periods were RMB 8.29 billion and RMB 15.59 billion, reflecting growth rates of 281% and 219% [43][44]. Profitability Metrics - The company's net profit margin improved from 1.67% in 2022 to 3.36% in the first three quarters of 2025. The adjusted net profit margin also increased from 1.90% to 3.90% during the same period, indicating enhanced profitability [44][56]. Future Projections - The report forecasts significant revenue and profit growth for the company, with expected revenues of RMB 656.97 billion, RMB 837.49 billion, and RMB 925.80 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The corresponding net profits are projected to be RMB 23.01 billion, RMB 34.23 billion, and RMB 42.85 billion [2][56].