BRIGHT DAIRY(600597) 国元证券·2024-11-05 09:39Investment Rating - Buy | Maintain [1] Core Views - Bright Dairy's Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 56.99 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.66%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -RMB 1.64 billion, compared to -RMB 0.15 billion in the same period last year [1] - The company's gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 18.06%, an increase of 2.54 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the decline in milk prices [2] - The net profit margin attributable to the parent company for Q3 2024 was -2.88%, a decrease of 2.64 percentage points year-on-year, mainly affected by rigid expenses and increased impairment losses [2] Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 184.13 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.89%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.16 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 63.94% [1] - Liquid milk revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 110.97 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.22%, while other dairy products revenue was RMB 56.14 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.03% [2] - Revenue from overseas regions in Q3 2024 increased by 4.08% year-on-year, reaching RMB 52.73 billion [2] Profitability and Expenses - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 19.28%, an increase of 0.61 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The sales and management expense ratios for Q3 2024 increased by 1.48 and 1.14 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 14.46% and 4.08%, respectively [2] - The impairment loss ratio for Q3 2024 increased by 4.91 percentage points year-on-year to 5.06%, mainly due to asset impairment and operating losses of the overseas subsidiary New Zealand Synlait [2] Future Projections - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 270 million, RMB 499 million, and RMB 543 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 72.05%, 84.69%, and 8.80% [3] - The PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 44, 24, and 22 times, respectively, based on the market value of RMB 11.8 billion as of November 4 [3] Regional and Channel Performance - Revenue from Shanghai, other domestic regions, and overseas regions for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 54.16 billion, RMB 76.68 billion, and RMB 52.73 billion, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -6.92%, -20.03%, and +3.01% [2] - Direct sales revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 39.71 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.17%, while distributor revenue was RMB 142.88 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.32% [2] - The number of distributors in Shanghai and other domestic regions increased by 58 and 138, respectively, in Q3 2024 [2]