PSBC(601658) 天风证券·2024-11-06 06:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 6.48 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 20% from the current price of 5.32 CNY [1][4]. Core Insights - The company has shown continuous revenue growth, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reaching approximately 260.35 billion CNY, and a year-over-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.22% [2][11]. - The net interest income has remained stable, supporting profit margins, while the growth rate of net profit has turned positive after being negative in previous quarters [2][11]. - The company’s non-performing loan ratio stands at 0.86%, with a provision coverage ratio of 301.9%, indicating strong asset quality [3][24]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of approximately 2603.49 billion CNY, with net interest income of 2149.47 billion CNY, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.46% [2][11]. - Non-interest income was reported at 454.02 billion CNY, showing a decline of 5.95% year-over-year, although the rate of decline has narrowed [2][11]. - The company’s net interest margin decreased to 1.85% due to central bank policies affecting loan and deposit rates, but future pressure on interest margins may ease [12][19]. Asset and Liability Management - The total interest-earning assets amounted to approximately 165.11 trillion CNY, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.0% [3][19]. - The total interest-bearing liabilities were about 157.96 trillion CNY, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter growth of 1.00% [3][19]. - The liquidity coverage ratio showed slight recovery, with values of 282.57%, 242.91%, and 259.95% for the first three quarters of 2024 [3][17]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan balance was 755 billion CNY, maintaining a stable level with a slight increase in the ratio [24]. - The company’s loan provision ratio and non-performing loan coverage ratio were reported at 2.60% and 301.9%, respectively, indicating a robust reserve against potential loan losses [24][26]. Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve a year-over-year growth in net profit of 2.30%, 3.60%, and 5.50% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][26]. - The estimated book value per share (BPS) for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 is expected to be 8.55 CNY, 9.77 CNY, and 11.62 CNY, respectively [4][26].