XfmGroup(603225) 华创证券·2024-11-06 11:11Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Q3 long fiber sales achieved year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth, but raw material inventory losses dragged down Q3 performance [1] - The company's steady capacity expansion continues to solidify its industry position, with growth potential expected [2] - The investment recommendation is adjusted due to slower-than-expected recovery in polyester fiber price spreads and PTA losses caused by falling crude oil prices [2] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 49.197 billion yuan, up 11.31% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 746 million yuan, down 15.91% year-on-year [1] - Q3 revenue was 17.924 billion yuan, up 11.91% year-on-year and 6.56% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Q3 net profit attributable to the parent company was 141 million yuan, down 65.41% year-on-year and 57.23% quarter-on-quarter [1] Sales and Pricing - Q3 long fiber sales volume increased by 20.7% year-on-year and 14.4% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 2.0699 million tons [2] - POY/FDY/DTY sales volumes were 1.479/0.388/0.202 million tons, up 27.2%/7.3%/6.6% year-on-year and 18.8%/4.3%/5.2% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Q3 POY/FDY/DTY average prices were 6,690/7,568/8,699 yuan per ton, down 4.4%/3.5%/0.1% year-on-year and 3.2%/2.7%/1.3% quarter-on-quarter [2] Capacity Expansion - Current long fiber production capacity is 7.4 million tons, with an additional 400,000 tons expected in 2024 and 650,000 tons in 2025 [2] - The company has 5 million tons of PTA capacity, with a future plan to reach 5.4 million tons using advanced P8++ technology [2] - The company is participating in the Taikun Petrochemical (Indonesia) refining project to further enhance cost advantages [2] Financial Forecasts - Expected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is 1.013/1.650/2.373 billion yuan, down from previous estimates of 1.527/2.069/2.705 billion yuan [2] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 0.66/1.08/1.56 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 17x/11x/7x [2] - Target price is set at 16.2 yuan based on a 15x PE ratio for 2025 [2] Market Performance - Current stock price is 11.55 yuan, with a target price of 16.2 yuan [4] - The stock has shown a market performance ranging from -20% to 33% over the past 12 months [5]