SF Holding(002352) 兴业证券·2024-11-07 06:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company reported Q3 2024 earnings that exceeded expectations, with total revenue of 72.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.81 billion yuan, up 34.59% year-on-year [4][6] - The company is experiencing strong cash flow, with operating cash flow of approximately 22.55 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, and a debt-to-asset ratio of about 52.6% [5] - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio from 35% in 2023 to 40% in 2024, indicating a growing willingness to return capital to shareholders [5] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue breakdown: express delivery revenue was 50.83 billion yuan (up 7.6% year-on-year), supply chain and international business revenue was 19.57 billion yuan (up 27.3% year-on-year), and other business revenue was 2.04 billion yuan (up 1.4% year-on-year) [3][4] - The overall gross margin for Q3 2024 was 14.1%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 3.9%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] - The company expects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 10.18 billion yuan, 11.63 billion yuan, and 13.46 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 21.4, 18.8, and 16.2 [6][7] Operational Insights - The company has been focusing on improving operational efficiency and governance since 2021, which has led to cost reductions and enhanced product competitiveness [5][6] - The company is benefiting from a recovery in domestic demand and an increase in international shipping rates, contributing to the growth in its supply chain and international business [4][5] - The company has implemented various cost-saving measures, including multi-network integration and operational changes at the last mile, which are beginning to show results [4][5]