香飘飘：Q3冲泡业务承压，即饮增长提速

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5][12]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.938 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 18 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, showing a year-on-year revenue decline of 2.05% but a significant net profit increase of 408.98% [2][7]. - The third quarter saw a total revenue of 759 million yuan, down 6.10% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 0.62% [2][7]. - The company's instant beverage segment is experiencing accelerated growth, with a revenue increase of 17.8% in Q3, while the brewing segment is under pressure with a revenue decline of 15% in Q3 [3][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters, the brewing business generated 1.11 billion yuan in revenue, down 8.27% year-on-year, while the instant beverage segment generated 801 million yuan, up 7.89% year-on-year [3][8]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters improved to 34.64%, up 2.40 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 gross margin at 40.94%, also up 2.41 percentage points [4][9]. - The net profit margin for the first three quarters was 0.91%, up 0.74 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 net profit margin at 6.22%, up 0.34 percentage points [4][9]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The report adjusts the earnings forecast for 2024-2026, expecting revenues of 3.605 billion, 4.047 billion, and 4.475 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 284 million, 341 million, and 389 million yuan [5][12]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.69, 0.83, and 0.95 yuan, respectively, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18.75, 15.61, and 13.69 [5][12].