恒立液压24Q3点评：挖机业务或有所修复，多元化战略持续推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Insights - The excavator industry in China is experiencing a recovery in both domestic and export sales, which is expected to benefit the company's excavator-related business [4][6]. - The company is actively pursuing a diversification strategy, expanding into non-excavator products and linear actuators, with non-standard business expected to grow rapidly [5][6]. - The company's gross margin has improved in the first three quarters of 2024, attributed to structural optimization and increased capacity utilization [5][6]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.609 billion yuan and 3.208 billion yuan in 2024 and 2025, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28 times and 23 times [6]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 6.936 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.791 billion yuan, up 2.16% year-on-year [3]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.103 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.12% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 504 million yuan, which is a 6.07% increase year-on-year [3]. Industry Performance - The excavator industry has seen a significant recovery since March 2024, with domestic sales maintaining a growth rate of around 20% from May to September, and Q3 exports showing a 3% year-on-year increase [4][6]. - The company’s excavator-related segments, including hydraulic cylinders, pumps, and motors, are expected to benefit from this industry recovery [4][6]. Diversification Strategy - The company is expanding its product offerings beyond traditional excavator-related products, with notable growth in non-excavator hydraulic cylinders and valves, achieving year-on-year increases of 21.53% and 24.30%, respectively, in H1 2024 [5][6]. - The linear actuator project is progressing steadily, with initial revenue recognition expected in Q3 2024 and significant growth anticipated in the following year [5][6]. Financial Metrics - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was reported at 41.46%, an increase of 1.26 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a higher proportion of revenue from value-added non-standard products [5][6]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 23.99%, a decrease of 1.13 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased management expenses [5][6].