中天火箭：2024年报三季报点评:营收与盈利出现下滑，单季度毛利率有所改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expected return exceeding 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [17][71]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2024, but inventory and contract liabilities have increased rapidly, indicating strong demand for orders on hand [17][20]. - The company has a competitive advantage in both military and civilian applications of small solid rockets, with stable growth expected in the civilian sector and accelerated development in specialized fields such as aerospace exploration and defense [17][20]. - The thermal materials segment, which currently accounts for the highest revenue share, faces short-term pressure on profit margins due to intensified competition in the photovoltaic industry, but future projects are expected to improve profitability [17][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 643 million yuan, a decrease of 4.48%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 17 million yuan, down 56.77% [3][17]. - The gross margin was 18.82%, down 1.23 percentage points, while the net margin was 2.67%, down 3.23 percentage points [3][17]. - The company reported a significant increase in cash flow from operating activities, amounting to 2 million yuan, primarily due to higher sales collections compared to the previous year [17]. Business Segments - The company focuses on small solid rocket products, with rapid revenue growth in military small solid rockets, which saw a 40.73% increase in the first half of 2024 [8][10]. - The thermal materials segment generated revenue of 186 million yuan in the first half of 2024, a decrease of 13.84%, while the gross margin declined by 3.63 percentage points [9][10]. - The company has accumulated extensive experience in product research and development in the small solid rocket sector, enhancing its core competitiveness in both military and civilian markets [10][17]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 1.185 billion yuan, 1.323 billion yuan, and 1.517 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [20]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 59.25 million yuan, 65.26 million yuan, and 75.90 million yuan for the same years [20]. - The company is actively investing in research and development to enhance its capabilities and expand production capacity, which is anticipated to further strengthen its market position [17][20].