PSBC(601658) 东方证券·2024-11-10 10:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Postal Savings Bank, with a target price of 6.81 CNY per share [4]. Core Views - Revenue and profit growth have rebounded, with the impact of reduced agency fees becoming evident. As of Q3 2024, the year-on-year growth rates for revenue, PPOP, and net profit attributable to the parent company have improved compared to H1 2024, reaching 0.1%, -1.8%, and 0.2% respectively [1]. - The bank has experienced a good growth in deposits, with total assets growing at a year-on-year rate of 9.3% as of Q3 2024, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from H1 2024 [1]. - The non-performing loan ratio has increased slightly to 0.86%, while the capital adequacy ratio has shown marginal improvement, indicating a stable risk absorption capacity [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the forecasted net profit growth rates are 0.8%, 1.0%, and 0.7% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with EPS projected at 0.81, 0.82, and 0.82 CNY [2]. - The bank's total revenue for 2023 is reported at 342,507 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [3]. - The net interest income for 2023 is projected to be 281,803 million CNY, with a growth rate of 3.4% [7]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.63X for 2024, 0.59X for 2025, and 0.55X for 2026 [2]. - The bank's average net asset return rate is expected to decline from 10.8% in 2023 to 9.3% in 2025 [3]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2023 is reported at 6.45, with a projected decrease to 6.49 by 2026 [3].