百润股份：Q3预调酒仍有压力，关注威士忌新品

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [4][12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.386 billion yuan for Q1-3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.88%, and a net profit of 574 million yuan, down 13.67% year-on-year. Q3 revenue was 758 million yuan, down 5.95% year-on-year, with a net profit of 172 million yuan, down 24.01%, indicating performance below expectations [1]. - The pre-mixed beverage segment generated 2.102 billion yuan in revenue for Q1-3 2024, a decline of 3.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 409 million yuan, down 14.4% year-on-year. Q3 revenue for pre-mixed beverages fell by 7% year-on-year, but the company is maintaining healthy operations to prepare for future growth [1]. - The lower-than-expected profits are attributed to increased marketing and promotional expenditures, with Q3 net profit margin down by 5.3 percentage points. Gross margin increased by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while sales and management expense ratios rose by 3.1 and 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [1]. - The company plans to continue its 358-degree matrix strategy, exploring new flavors and promoting refreshing new products comprehensively. A new whiskey product is set to launch in November, with attention on subsequent distribution progress [1]. Financial Forecast - Revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are adjusted to -1%, 12%, and 15%, with projected revenues of 3.22 billion, 3.60 billion, and 4.16 billion yuan, respectively. Net profit growth rates are projected at -9%, 11%, and 15%, with expected net profits of 740 million, 820 million, and 950 million yuan, respectively. Corresponding P/E ratios are 38X, 35X, and 30X [2][6]. - The pre-mixed beverage segment is expected to stabilize, while the whiskey business shows promising prospects [2]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2022 was approximately 2.593 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 3.220 billion yuan for 2024. The net profit for 2022 was 521 million yuan, with a forecasted net profit of 739 million yuan for 2024 [3][6]. - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 54.41 in 2022 to 30.01 in 2026, indicating an improving valuation over time [3][8]. Key Financial Ratios - The net profit margin is projected to be 20.10% in 2022, increasing to 22.74% by 2026. The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 13.85% in 2022 to 18.74% in 2026 [8]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio is 42.54%, indicating a moderate level of debt relative to its assets [4]. Market Position - The company operates in the food and beverage industry, specifically in the non-baijiu segment, with a focus on pre-mixed beverages and whiskey products [4]. - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 28.36 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 19.36 billion yuan [4].