GreatStar(002444) 长江证券·2024-11-13 01:18Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [3]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 11.084 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.73%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.935 billion yuan, up 28.50% year-on-year [4][6]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a record revenue of 4.383 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 30.2% and 29.1%, respectively. The net profit for Q3 was 742 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5% [4][6]. - The slight underperformance in profit compared to previous guidance was primarily due to higher-than-expected foreign exchange impacts. The gross margin for Q3 2024 was down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's financial expenses amounted to 101 million yuan in Q3, contrasting with a gain of 115 million yuan in Q2, mainly due to foreign exchange losses [4]. - Investment income for Q3 was 125 million yuan, an increase of 41 million yuan year-on-year but a decrease of 114 million yuan quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to rising natural rubber prices affecting the short-term net profit of the joint venture [4]. - The company has actively returned dividends to investors, with total dividends for the year reaching 597 million yuan and a dividend payout ratio of 30.86% for Q1-Q3 2024 [6]. Market Outlook - The U.S. housing market remains weak, with September existing home sales at an annualized rate of 3.84 million units, down 4% year-on-year and 1% month-on-month. However, the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts are expected to boost end-user demand [5]. - The company anticipates a recovery in cash flow in Q4 as revenue is expected to increase further, driven by strong demand and production plans [6]. - The company projects net profits of 2.199 billion yuan, 2.702 billion yuan, and 3.222 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 16, 13, and 11 times [6].