Keshun(300737) 华创证券·2024-11-15 08:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 53 94% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by improved gross margins and cost reductions [1][2] - Revenue declined by 17 7% YoY due to pressure from downstream real estate demand, with new construction area down 22 2% YoY [2] - Gross margin improved by 1 8 percentage points YoY to 23% in the first three quarters of 2024, with potential for further improvement if raw material prices continue to decline [2] - The company's market share is expected to increase as the industry undergoes consolidation, and its competitive advantages are significant [3] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 5 136 billion, down 17 7% YoY, while net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 126 million, up 53 94% YoY [1] - In Q3 2024, revenue was RMB 1 665 billion, down 12 56% YoY, and net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 32 million, up 51 22% YoY [1] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 0 14, RMB 0 28, and RMB 0 40 per share, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 39x, 21x, and 14x [3] Cost and Expense Analysis - The company's gross margin improved due to lower raw material costs, with modified asphalt prices in East China, South China, and Southwest China down 4%, 1%, and 7% YoY, respectively, in Q4 2024 [2] - The company's expense ratio increased by 2 4 percentage points YoY to 18% in the first three quarters of 2024, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios rising by 1 2, 0 9, and 0 5 percentage points, respectively [3] Industry and Market Position - The company is a leading player in the waterproofing industry, with significant competitive advantages [3] - The industry is expected to undergo consolidation, which could further enhance the company's market share [3]