SAIC MOTOR(600104) 长江证券·2024-11-18 02:34Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SAIC Motor (600104 SH) [9] Core Views - SAIC Motor's Q3 2024 financial performance was under pressure due to declining sales, with a significant drop in net profit attributable to the parent company [2][5] - The company is accelerating its innovation and transformation efforts, focusing on new energy vehicles and intelligent technologies [7] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, SAIC Motor achieved operating revenue of 145 8 billion yuan, down 25 9% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 280 million yuan, a sharp decline of 93 5% year-on-year [2][5] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's operating revenue was 430 48 billion yuan, down 17 7% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 6 91 billion yuan, down 39 4% year-on-year [2][5] Sales and Market Performance - Q3 2024 wholesale sales were 822,000 units, down 37 0% year-on-year, with passenger vehicle sales of 756,000 units, down 9 1% year-on-year [5] - SAIC Volkswagen sold 260,000 units in Q3 2024, down 21 0% year-on-year, while SAIC-GM sold 53,000 units, down 80 6% year-on-year [6] New Energy and Overseas Markets - In the first three quarters of 2024, SAIC Motor delivered 886,000 new energy vehicles, up 29 5% year-on-year [6] - Overseas market terminal deliveries reached 806,000 units, up 5 5% year-on-year, with the European market expected to reach a new high despite challenges from EU anti-subsidy investigations [6] Technological Innovation and Future Outlook - SAIC Motor is advancing technologies such as DMH super hybrid, full-stack 3 0 intelligent vehicle solutions, and solid-state batteries, which are expected to accelerate mass production [7] - The company is expected to see a recovery in joint venture sales and a new development cycle for its own brands, potentially driving valuation recovery [7] Financial Projections - The report forecasts SAIC Motor's net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 10 55 billion yuan, 15 38 billion yuan, and 16 34 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P E ratios of 18 9X, 13 0X, and 12 2X [7]