CHALCO(601600) 渤海证券·2024-11-21 09:08Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic aluminum industry, focusing on improving quality and efficiency, resulting in a continuous enhancement of profitability. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 9.017 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.46%, marking the highest level since 2020. The gross margin and net margin were 15.23% and 8.65%, respectively, reflecting increases of 3.90 percentage points and 3.76 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The domestic aluminum industry is experiencing a tightening supply of bauxite resources, leading to increased reliance on imports. The pricing power of bauxite is gradually shifting, with short-term prices expected to remain strong, supporting aluminum prices. The domestic primary aluminum production capacity is subject to compliance limits, with limited new capacity expected in the future. Factors such as overseas interest rate cuts and domestic real estate stabilization are anticipated to boost downstream aluminum demand [4][42]. 2. Company Resources and Capacity - The company possesses a high degree of resource assurance, holding the largest domestic bauxite reserves and actively acquiring overseas bauxite resources in regions like Africa and Southeast Asia. As of June 2024, the company ranks first globally in the production capacity of alumina, primary aluminum, fine alumina, high-purity aluminum, and aluminum anodes. The company is also advancing new capacity projects for alumina and primary aluminum, indicating potential for future growth [5][6]. 3. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Under a neutral scenario, the company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 11.312 billion yuan, 12.583 billion yuan, and 14.124 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.66 yuan, 0.73 yuan, and 0.82 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11.83X, 10.64X, and 9.47X [6][7].