韵达股份：网络修复，困境反转

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yunda Express (韵达股份) [6]. Core Views - Yunda Express is one of the leading express delivery brands, steadily expanding and improving operations. The company has transformed from the fifth to the second in market share from 2014 to 2019, benefiting from the direct management and digital transformation of its transit centers. Despite a setback in 2022 due to network issues, the company has resumed market share expansion and demonstrated performance elasticity in 2023, with both market share and net profit margin increasing year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024 [3][4]. - The industry is experiencing a supply-demand reversal, leading to improved returns. After a peak in capital expenditure in 2021, the industry is entering a capacity ramp-up phase. With strong demand growth, it is expected that supply-demand rebalancing will take four years, reaching peak capacity utilization by 2025, which presents a strategic opportunity for Yunda to reverse its previous challenges [3][4]. - The company has initiated a network repair plan in 2023, increasing the number of terminal outlets by 14.84% year-on-year to 4,851. This increase in outlets is expected to drive significant volume growth and enhance service capabilities. Yunda is currently in a phase of repairing market share and costs, with sufficient capacity ramp-up potential to support industry-leading cost elasticity and profit elasticity [4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The financial forecast for Yunda Express indicates a recovery in profitability and business volume, with expected net profits of 1.974 billion, 2.349 billion, and 2.756 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The report suggests a reasonable valuation of 9.53 yuan per share based on a 14x PE ratio for 2024 [4][5]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 47.434 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 13.3%. The EBITDA is expected to be 5.887 billion yuan, and the net profit margin is anticipated to improve significantly [5][4]. - The report highlights that Yunda's operating cash flow reached 3.213 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a reduction in the debt-to-asset ratio from 55.1% in 2022 to 48.0% in Q3 2024 [4][5][118]. Industry Overview - The express delivery industry has undergone a transformation, with a shift towards a dual market structure dominated by mid-to-low-end services. Yunda focuses on this segment while also developing high-value time-sensitive products [82][86]. - The industry is currently in a phase of moderate price competition, with Yunda managing to increase its market share despite a decline in single-package revenue due to competitive pressures [4][114]. - The report notes that the industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability as capital expenditures stabilize and demand continues to grow [3][4].