Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 183.64 HKD for the Hong Kong stock and 23.59 USD for the US stock, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2024 [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 31.36 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 12.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.43 billion RMB, down 1.9% year-over-year, while the adjusted net profit increased by 9.2% to 7.42 billion RMB [2][3]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.68 billion RMB, up 17.6% year-over-year, with a net profit of 2.40 billion RMB, reflecting a 2.2% increase year-over-year [2][3]. - The total business volume for the first three quarters reached 24.346 billion packages, a 13.3% increase year-over-year, with Q3 alone accounting for 8.723 billion packages, up 16.0% year-over-year [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's gross profit maintained a robust growth of 23.2% year-over-year in Q3, driven by improved service quality and customer satisfaction. The core revenue per package increased by 1.8%, despite a decline of 11.8% in industry average package prices [3]. - The company has optimized its business structure, leading to improved revenue and operating profit margins. However, the ongoing trend of smaller package sizes poses challenges to balancing service quality, volume, and overall profitability [3]. - The company plans to rebalance resource allocation and pricing strategies to regain business volume growth and enhance market share [3]. Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 11.31 RMB, 13.06 RMB, and 14.66 RMB respectively, with projected revenue growth rates of 12%, 14%, and 10% for the same years [4][5].
中通快递-W：利润符合预期，质量平衡与市场脉搏同频