SF Holding(002352) 信达证券·2024-11-25 07:26Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for SF Holdings (002352) [3] Core Views - SF Holdings is a comprehensive logistics leader in China, entering a new development phase with operational and cash flow inflection points [3] - Short-term: Revenue growth driven by improved logistics network and multi-business synergy, with potential for margin expansion [3] - Long-term: Ezhou Airport to empower air cargo business and open up international growth opportunities [3] Business Overview - SF Holdings has diversified into time-sensitive express, economy express, freight, cold chain, same-city delivery, and supply chain & international businesses [14][16] - Time-sensitive express remains the core, contributing 44% of H1 2024 revenue [16] - Economy express revenue grew 9.3% YoY in H1 2024, with 15.6% growth excluding Fengwang [16] - Freight business revenue increased 16.1% YoY in H1 2024 [16] Operational Inflection Points - Economy express: Focus on mid-to-high-end e-commerce market, with profitability turning positive [3][26] - Freight: Achieved profitability in 2022, with further cost optimization in 2023 [3][29] - Same-city delivery: First full-year profit in 2023, with 105% YoY profit growth in H1 2024 [3][30] Financial Inflection Points - Operating cash flow CAGR of 36% from 2018-2023, with 11.9% YoY growth in Q1-Q3 2024 [3][32] - Free cash flow turned positive in 2022, reaching RMB 12.87 billion, and further increased to RMB 12.66 billion in 2023 [3][35] Short-term Outlook - Time-sensitive express: Air coverage expansion to drive upgrades from ground to air shipments, potentially increasing next-morning delivery cities from 20+ to 30+ [38] - Economy express: Differentiated positioning in mid-to-high-end e-commerce market to capture market share [39] - Freight: High-quality service capabilities expected to drive demand growth [42] Long-term Outlook - Ezhou Airport: Operational since July 2022, with 55 domestic and 13 international cargo routes by June 2024 [54] - Three-stage growth expected: 1) Service capability enhancement, 2) Warehouse-distribution integration, 3) Industrial cluster expansion [55] - International business: Higher gross margins compared to domestic logistics, with 45% of China's top 500 companies using SF's international services [62][66] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 revenue growth forecast at 10.18%, 10.94%, and 10.24% respectively [73] - 2024-2026 net profit forecast at RMB 10.04 billion, RMB 12.00 billion, and RMB 14.42 billion, with a 3-year CAGR of 20.54% [73] Valuation - FCFF model suggests a target value of RMB 320.5 billion, or RMB 66.54 per share [77] - 2024-2026 PE ratios estimated at 20x, 17x, and 14x respectively [79] - Maintain "Buy" rating based on absolute valuation, PE analysis, and cash flow multiples [81]